GLD to see a short term drop followed by long breakout

GLD has seen three major drops during its consolidation that always made significant new lows. We are in the midst of a forth. What makes this one different is that the preceding price action is more bullish. This demonstrates strength not seen with the other drops and so I don't see this one making a new low. If we see it drop below 166 (there are valid arguments to suggest that), then I'm wrong, and we'll be in for another month and a half of consolidation at that new level.
If Tuesday is indeed what I'm predicting, a small candle closing between 169 and 171, I'll buy a small position with a 165 stop. The reason for only trading a small position is because I'm trading a breakout that is probably a couple weeks away (kind-of like catching the falling knife trade) so I want to keep my risk low. When GLD does finally break, I expect it to climb into the 200s.