GVT Possibilities
Mis à jour
This coin is one of my long-term holds, but I sold a portion of my stack that I bought low on the recent top and redistributed the profits to some other coins. Still holding most of my position in GVTBTC, because I like the vision (no pun intended) and the team, and am interested in using the platform in the future.
However, I had a feeling it could drop to at least the 15000 range, which is has done. Based on previous support, it could consolidate for a while here and then chose a direction. Either we will be going down to 10000 (new established uptrend line) or completing our 3rd wave up to test the all time high level. Since the market appears to be finally turning bullish, the 3rd (C) wave up is possible.
Just presenting a couple of different scenarios. We'll see what happens. If you believe in this coin long term and have wanted to get in, laddering in buys now might not be a bad idea, as we might not go much lower. I'd save some for 10000 in case we get down there. If 10000 breaks decisively, this coin will need a breather for a while and may test the bottom of its range again.
This is not financial advice, just presenting some possibilities.
-Victor Cobra
However, I had a feeling it could drop to at least the 15000 range, which is has done. Based on previous support, it could consolidate for a while here and then chose a direction. Either we will be going down to 10000 (new established uptrend line) or completing our 3rd wave up to test the all time high level. Since the market appears to be finally turning bullish, the 3rd (C) wave up is possible.
Just presenting a couple of different scenarios. We'll see what happens. If you believe in this coin long term and have wanted to get in, laddering in buys now might not be a bad idea, as we might not go much lower. I'd save some for 10000 in case we get down there. If 10000 breaks decisively, this coin will need a breather for a while and may test the bottom of its range again.
This is not financial advice, just presenting some possibilities.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Something to note is the large amount of selling volume. If we were to consolidate and move higher, I'd like to see selling volume decline over the next week or so. However, if you compare this current volume profile to the last time we consolidated in this range (back in February), it is very different. There is more selling now, which could mean that we do need to drop lower.Note
We did indeed go down a little further, since the selling volume has not let up. However, we are still in this potential consolidation range. We just had a decent bounce, so it's possible we pause here for a while before any continued movement.Note
Might be a good short term bounce play with a stop near the recent low of 14421. Target would be previous support turned resistance at around 17000. Note
Instead of bouncing higher, like I expected, we got rejected at 16500, although it was still a good short term bounce play for anyone who caught it. Now we are forming a flag. If it breaks down, we can head down to 10000. It might fail to break down though, if Bitcoin continues to inch up. Note
Looks like we hit my target of 17000 after all! A nice 15-16% gain since I made the call. Should've just stuck with my original idea :P This flag was what one of my favorite analysts (botje11) would call a "false flag." We may drop back down to the 14000-15000 area to continue consolidating. Note
Pretty much nailed this one so far. Should've sold some more at my target, but ah well. This is mostly to keep track of what's going on. We should retest the 14000 area soon and maybe bounce again before a confirmed direction. Let's see how this develops.Note
Might not get much lower on this particular drop, unless BTC decides to take a big dump. If we're going to continue consolidating here, we should bounce up again soon.Note
Made it back to the 14000 zone since BTC and the rest of the market has been looking feeble. If we don't bounce up again here to 16500-17000, we may break down soon. I may sell some if we break below 14000.Note
Back in the 14000 zone, but at a lower low. This might be a good sell opportunity if it fails to rebound from here. The next target would be 10000. I might actually make this trade. We shall see.Note
The sell volume on this drop is pretty low so far and BTC is going up a little. Holding off on selling for now.Note
Really hanging on by a thread here.Note
If we can't get back above 14500 soon, this will be pretty bad for GVT near term.Note
If we see a bounce here, it absolutely needs to break back up into that wedge and back above support in the 14600 area and hold it, if GVT is going to go on to its ATH. Otherwise, it'll fall down to its lower support zone and many investors will be unhappy.Note
Note
Holding this support zone FOR NOW (but barely). The whole alt market seems to be wanting to move down to lower support levels before the next upswing. The market is moving slower now. This is the end of the mini alt cycle we've had during BTC stability the last couple months. Combination of people taking profits and getting frustrated with all the sideways movement and capitulating.Note
Broke support. I sold the other portion of my stack that I bought in the 8000 area at 13400. Expecting a retest of those lows soon. Still holding half my GVT.Note
Just tested support as resistance with a nice oversold bounce. If it does not break out of this downtrend resistance line (orange), it will continue to go down to the 8000-1000 zone. I may consider re-buying there, if it works well with my portfolio balance. Note
Really trying to reverse here, but the charts say it should target the 8000 area. If it can break out of the downtrend, I may put my 25% back in (have some wiggle room, considering I put it in XRP when I sold the other day).Note
Hesitant to buy back here, as it's still butting up against the falling wedge resistance. GVT has a history of extended dumps followed by a nice 20-30% pump in a day, only to crash down harder. Note
Rejected from resistance 3 times now on the 4H chart. Not looking great. Really needs to convincingly break that orange line to get out of this steep downtrend. Note
It's actually holding the line pretty well. Not much to say here until it breaks up or down.Note
We touched a little below the top of the buy zone, around 10000. I've been back in with my portion that I sold at 13400. Took some XRP profits to get back in at breakeven, since GVT was looking more bullish than I was expected. We're already bouncing hard since yesterday. If that was the bottom, then it's pretty bullish, since it's actually above the rising trend line. A lot of coins are bouncing right above their final supports, which means buyers got excited and stepped in early. Note
Sellers could also take advantage and bring us down to the blue support soon, but we see continued buying in this area. Most likely swing traders, making enormous profits on the swing between 11000 and 13000.Note
Looks like we're slowly approaching the low uptrend line. This gives us a target of 8400-8500 for a bounce. The 8000-9000 area was a pretty good accumulation zone before the previous run as well. Note
Potential V-bottom: Note
Getting very close now. Not much else to say technically, except that we should wait for it to get even closer to the blue line and look for a potential long opportunity. The long term trend for this coin will depend on what happens there. The stock market looks very bad, so expected returns for asset management won't be as high, which would mean very little demand for GVT in the near future. However, others might see it as an opportunity to make money during a long bear market, since it would require skilled traders (there are a few on this platform). 
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