Why I still have not consider buying Property stocks

8 avr. 2020

This was one of the most talked about stocks in our local forum. Many were saying how good it is and how cheap it was (months ago) and they went in at a bargain.

Forgive me for not able to furnish you more about the fundamentals but the chart failed to excite me at all.

Day chart - bearish
4H - slightly bullish but facing resistance

On the macro environment, you already know how severe the impact Covid-19 has caused the whole world to plunge, causing many industries to slow down drastically. Property stocks is one of them. Ask yourself this question wherever you are staying - who are the workers working in the construction site ?

Foreign workers , right ? So in Singapore , where we depend so much on them to help us build the properties, be it residential or commercial, they too are hard hit now with the cover-19 . Singapore has order a circuit breaker to get everyone to stay at home.

They are now the latest victims of Covid 19.

So workers for property developers can't work, the work has to be halted. Developers have a certain time line to complete the construction else they have to pay a fine to the government.

Now, how about the consumers ? Are they actively buying ? Read here

Really, if I have loads of cash now, I will go scoop up some luxury properties as developers will soon dangle discounts or the heavily leveraged investors have to dispose some of their properties as they cannot afford to flip now with no buyers and serving the loan become a pain.

So, now you see the logic why hesitating to buy the property stocks (in any country really) can wait. No hurry.....

20 avr. 2020

Note

Not good. double top and bearish red candles, it might breakdown 4.15 and revisit the 3 dollars range.

14 mai 2020

Note

I am not too optimistic about the property market as a whole. We have probably a few years (2-4) before we witness the next bear market crash. The low interest environment cannot be sustained and is a matter of time , the Feds will resort to negative interest just like Japan.

And the latter has shown us the lesson of the Lost Decades where economy remains in stagnation and despite President Abe numerous attempts to resurrect the economy, it just won't work. Consumers are not spending for fear as they have no confidence in it.

And there will comes a day the Fed has to raise the interest rate, say from zero to 1% and the greedy property investors who bought the properties cheap will suddenly have on hand mortgage loans ballooning so high they cannot afford to pay.

Options ? They have to dispose the properties at fire sales price. (that would be the time to go buying, not now)

4 juin 2020

Note

There is a lot of discussion on local forums on this giant stock. Many bought at 4.40 and above , viewing this as undervalued stock. Fundamentals aside, chart tells me it is not yet ready to charge up. At 4.15, it is facing the resistance level again where sellers were waiting to short it down to a low of 3.45 from 24 Apr to 11 May.

Let it break out and watch for bullish signals , no hurry

27 juil. 2020

Note

more than 3 months now, there is still much weakness in the property sector. The current price is likely to head further south

5 nov. 2020

Note

ranging at 3.64 to 3.86