Humanigen $HGEN is ready for a breakout

19 mai 2021

These past weeks we saw a lot of action regarding HGEN - not that much pricewise, but more on a fundamental basis like the long awaited news about the date for the Emergency-Use-Authorization (EUA), identified as a key driver for demand and price action.

Humanigen intends to request the EUA by June 2021. Looking at the chart, the price did not react as much to the news, most likely because of anticipation, whether they will receive the EUA or not (I assume they will). Humanigen has done a great job fulfilling the prerequisites (published Phase 3 data looks promising) and they recently had a meeting with the FDA to clarify the scope (biospace.com/article/humanigen-expects-to-file-for-eua-for-lenzilumab-for-covid-19-by-june/).

Several rating companies have set the target at 40$, but looking at the chart and institutional interest there is clearly a bit more upwards potential than that. 30$ has been reached previously and with Blackrock increasing their position, as well as HGEN being the 5th largest holding in the XBI ETF a target of 60$, 86$ and 102$ is more likely.

The big companies have done a great job in increasing their position without moving the stock's price too much. Right now we have a tight trading range and 20$ is working as a light resistance. A shakeout also occured yesterday and it is possible that more might follow. These are quite normal, as big companies try to improve their position.

-This is no financial advice-

For transparency: I am invested in HGEN with 1/10 of my account size. I always keep buffer cash and never go all in!

31 mai 2021

Note

Great news: HGEN has submitted the EUA. So now it is a waiting game. Shortsellers will try to push the price down, but chunks of sold shares get bought up. The share float is high (> 24%) and the days to cover are at 7 (May 14th, 2021) from 1 (March 31st, 2021). With a little bit of luck, this stock could experience a nice short squeeze - so 86$ should be reachable and 102$ or even above are also realistic. I recommend scaling out as you reach each profit target.

5 août 2021

Note

Time to update this idea. Two months have passed and we are still patiently waiting for that EUA to be granted by the FDA. As you can still see on my early idea from May 19th, 2021, the trading range is still in play, as well as the wedge, where the price is moving in. At this point this is a waiting game, but never invest more than you can afford to lose. I really believe in Humanigen. Their balance sheets and quick ratio look healthy. A more conservative profit target could be around 30$.