ICX gearing up again

We are closing in on the completion of this ascending triangle. We recently saw a breakout met with resistance and pushed back inside the triangle. We are hovering at the 50% retracement of the smaller move after wicking down to hit the moving average and being respected as dynamic support.

I have drawn out two scenarios. The green arrows show breaking through resistance, retesting as support, and then moon.

The orange scenario (i consider this more likely) shows dropping to support zone, in confluence with a 38.2% retracement, finding support, re-testing the top of the triangle, back to the bottom trendline, then finally the breakout to moon.