Johnson & Johnson | Fundamental Analysis | Must Read...

28 oct. 2021

Johnson & Johnson is a leader in several areas of pharmaceutical research, including oncology and immunologic diseases. The company's portfolio of drugs in these two areas brings in billions of dollars in revenue each quarter. The company is currently seeking to strengthen its market share in COVID-19 vaccines.

This year, Johnson & Johnson anticipates generating $2.5 billion from sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, well below the $33.5 billion and $20 billion, respectively, expected by Pfizer and Moderna. Fortuitously, some up-to-date developments favor Johnson & Johnson's ambitions in this profitable market.

Most COVID vaccines currently available in the U.S. are given to patients in two doses about a month apart. J&J's vaccine is injected in only one dose. Based on real-world data and Phase 3 clinical trials, the company is sure that a single dose of its vaccine is 75% effective against severe cases of COVID for at least 28 days after vaccination.

This efficacy compares disadvantageously with the effectiveness of vaccines marketed by Pfizer and Moderna, as well as a vaccine developed by Novavax, which has not yet received emergency use authorization (EUA) in the United States. All three vaccines have proven at least 90% effective in preventing COVID in clinical trials.

Nevertheless, Johnson & Johnson recently revealed data showing that a booster dose (or second dose) of the vaccine, given two months after the first dose, improves its effectiveness to 94% against the onset of severe COVID. On Oct. 5, the company applied for EUA approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to administer a second dose of the vaccine.

Then, on Oct. 15, a panel convened by the FDA voted unanimously for the agency to issue the company an EUA approval. The last wek, the FDA granted the company this long-awaited approval.

In addition to getting the green light a little later than some of its competitors, Johnson & Johnson's COVID vaccine faced several obstacles. In mid-April, health authorities decided to suspend the distribution of the vaccine after it was suspected of causing blood clots in some patients (the original EUA approval was granted in late February).

Regulators canceled that suspension about a week and a half later, arguing that the known benefits outweighed the known risks and requiring a new warning on the vaccine label going forward. Indeed, six patients out of more than 6.8 million vaccinated were known to have been affected by this adverse event. This episode is now left behind, but since the pandemic is not yet over, mainly because of the more dangerous delta variant of the virus, the need for vaccines remains.

Since the second dose of the J&J vaccine seems to increase its effectiveness, this can only have a positive effect on its sales. This is especially true given that the FDA has not placed any health-related (or similar) restrictions on who can get a second dose of the vaccine from Johnson & Johnson. But here's the catch: the company has pledged not to profit from the product for the duration of the pandemic. In other words, boosted sales of vaccines will have no meaningful impact on the bottom line in the short term.

In the future, the company may profit from its vaccine when the pandemic fades and if COVID becomes a seasonal disease like the flu, as some predict. But even then, given how competitive this market is, the J&J vaccine will have only a very moderate influence on a company that typically makes more than $10 billion in profits a year.

In other words, investing in Johnson & Johnson because of its COVID vaccine is not a good idea. Luckily, there are plenty of other reasons for that. Consider the company's diversified operations. Its pharmaceutical business, the largest by revenue, includes quite a few blockbuster products whose sales continue to grow.

Here are a few of them: in the third quarter (ended Sept. 30), revenue from the immunosuppressant Stelara was $2.4 billion, up 22.2% from the previous quarter. Oncology drug Darzalex increased its sales 43.7% year over year to $1.6 billion. This is just the tip of the iceberg for the company, with several dozen late-stage programs in development.

Expanding its product line and approving new drugs is commonplace at Johnson & Johnson. Its consumer health products segment sells over-the-counter products with broad appeal, including Listerine, Neutrogena, Aveeno, and Tylenol. The company's medical device business adds to its revenue base.

Here's another reason to invest in this company: the company has increased its dividend every year for more than 50 consecutive years, making it the Dividend King.

The company currently has a yield of 2.53%, higher than the S&P 500 Index's 1.38%, and maintains a conservative cash payout ratio of 47%. That makes it engaging to income-seeking investors. In other words, Johnson & Johnson may not be the best stock to buy the COVID vaccine, but it remains a solid pharmaceutical company to invest in.