Monthly Job Openings, Bear Awakening

2 mai 2023

Looking at Job Openings data, bear markets end when RSI is below 30, we've just now crossed below 50, we have a long way to go.

I think Job Openings need to fall to roughly 1/3 of the current level to 3mil or so down from 9mil, which would still be quite a bit higher than previous bear market bottoms.

Equity levels will most likely follow right along.

29 août 2023

Note

Job Openings continue to fall very slowly. I can't imagine we bottom until they drop to at least 5m, but I still think 3m is the more reasonable low point. With 8.45m openings and 3.5-4.0% unemployment the labor market is still extremely tight.

The market is celebrating the decline, but I think that will be short-lived.

6 oct. 2023

Note

9.6 million Job Openings. There's still a long way to go!
Jobs data has not been good for inflation, and unlikely to change quickly or soon. I'm thinking JOLTS won't bottom for another 2 years.

Next FOMC on 2023-11-01 the day after Halloween might scare people with a spooky dot-plot. 👻 Even Higher for Even Longer👻

QT is likely only ~25% complete, and it's been slow relative to QE, but it's working, driving up 10year Treasury Yields.

Even when short-term Fed rates start coming down QT will keep pushing up long-term yields for years. As long-term Yields keep going 📈non-yielding Assets will keep going 📉

24 sept.

Note

It's wild that the Fed is cutting rates with Job Openings just now dropping to the pre-pandemic HIGH. 🙄