eVTOL manufacturer Lilium on the verge of 80% collapse?

8 juil.

For some years I’ve been watching with interest the electrification attempts of the helicopter. Referred to as eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing), various companies around the world are competing for market dominance with their winning design. I’m reminded of “Those Magnificent Men in their Flying Machines”.

There’s a realisation coming to many electric cars owners that will inevitably spill over to eVTOL.

1) Range anxiety.
2) Hazardous battery fires are hard to extinguish.

3) The mass-based energy density of batteries is in the range of 0.1 to 0.27 kWh/kg. In comparison, gasoline is 13 kWh/kg.

For me, no. 3 is the killer of electric transportation, whether it be on road or flight you carry weight than never depletes during use.


4) Proven certified technology.

I’m a safety aerospace engineer by trade. When moving people around even for short flight, safety is above all. There can be nothing more important. eVTOL is complex technology, especially when compared to a regular helicopters. I’m not saying they are not safe, but proving they are remains a long way off.

Almost all eVTOLs require an airfield to operate. Helicopters do not. Have been invited to a number of demonstrations over the years, the one thing that continues to strike me is how far certification for safe flight actually is. Easily 10+ years.

Remove people from the equation and transport goods, now that’s a different proposition altogether. One of my favourite examples of this is the office from:

flyzipline.com

Now flyzipline is not yet a stock you can buy, but wink wink, get in there early if you can.


The chart -
On the above 8 day chart price action has been printing lower highs for the past few years. Only recently (I’ve been watching) has market structure broken.

The symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern that continues in the direction of the trend 84% of the time. That’s a huge statistic.

On the RSI a breakout of support is visible.

Is it possible price action grows? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

Ww

11 juil.

Note

Ah, the sheer audacity of this idea has unleashed a maelstrom of dissent, a barrage of impassioned missives both public and private. And yet, amidst all this rancour, I detect a certain... je ne sais quoi. A certain 'I'll-be-damned-if-I-let-this-go-unchallenged’..

Vested interests, indeed!

Market capital of the business July 2024: 557.85m

Total liabilities ($):

2020: 13.5m
2021: 105.86m
2022: 94.49m
2023: 307.78m

Does the problem now reveal itself?

You should also read from seekingalpha.com

Highlights:

“For Lilium has a couple of operational problems as well. One is that it looks like they're going to miss their own target for type approval. That was going to be next year - 2024. It would be really very surprising if they managed that.”

“And here's the thing, type approval for an aircraft manufacturer is like FDA (or other) approval to a pharma company. It's all or bust to that point.”

Have they got enough money to get to that permission or no permission decision point?”

Time will tell. The chart already so.


seekingalpha.com/article/4585913-lilium-stock-didnt-raise-enough-capital-take-off-hold

24 juil.

Transaction en cours

Past support confirms resistance.
Back up the truck and load up the short contracts.
First support test will be in the 60 cent area.

9 sept.

Note

-20% since resistance confirmation. 60% to go.

23 sept.

Note

Be careful if you're long on this unicorn, price action may be about to roll over with a 80% crash to 15 cents. Price action has confirmed failed support.

3 week

17 oct.

Transaction en cours

Now down 50%
Price action confirms failed support as resistance.
Short positions can remain open until 20 cents or until cessation of trading, the business is almost out of cash.

24 oct.

Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte

50% Crash on one trading session!
76% crash since idea published.
Closing the short.

24 oct.

Note

Price action dropping faster than the Hindenburg.

25 oct.

Note

Wozzers another -30% on open, that's a full 90% correction.
Will be at 0 before close this rate.


Archer Aviation Inc. is the next eVTOL we're going go "short" on. Same deal as Lilium, a full 80% correction.

29 oct.

Note

0 is only 9 cents away!

29 oct.

Note

"Lilium: Nasdaq Notice Says Shares Will Be Delisted, With a Suspension at Opening of Business Nov. 6"

Buy low... sell lower before the stock is delisted.

30 oct.

Note

A cheeky long trade after all that hurt. Investors are crushed. Sellers want to sell to 0 if they can. We're going to use that pain for a cheeky long trade at the daily hammer close.
We'll exit again once investor smell hope.

5 nov.

Note

Just when you thought it couldn't go any lower, another -40%

95% in total now.