2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull channel is clear and valid until broken. I do think a bigger pull-back is overdue but until then, bulls are in control.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2670 - 2770
bull case: Bulls want to print above 2761 and make a new high above the December high. If they can get it, we could see more upside to 2800 since there is no more resistance afterwards. the bull channel is tight and no matter how you count it, we had at least 3 legs up and betting on a 4th is a losing strategy in most cases.
Invalidation is below 2700.
bear case: Bears doing not enough and if they fail at 2761, we will go 2800+ again. Not much to interpret here. We are still in a bull channel on the 1h tf and bears would need a 1h bar close below the 20ema for a start. The previous times we got above 2740, we printed huge bear reversal bars and I am hoping for another one tomorrow. Bears are also seeing this as at least 3 legs up and they want another decent pull-back for at least 50 points like the prior ones.
Invalidation is above 2765.
short term: Neutral. Waiting for bears to come around here at big resistance. If they fail, we see 2800 soon. No bigger interest in buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 1h tf at 2722 before EU open. Otherwise just any pullback to the 1h 20ema.
comment: The bull channel is clear and valid until broken. I do think a bigger pull-back is overdue but until then, bulls are in control.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2670 - 2770
bull case: Bulls want to print above 2761 and make a new high above the December high. If they can get it, we could see more upside to 2800 since there is no more resistance afterwards. the bull channel is tight and no matter how you count it, we had at least 3 legs up and betting on a 4th is a losing strategy in most cases.
Invalidation is below 2700.
bear case: Bears doing not enough and if they fail at 2761, we will go 2800+ again. Not much to interpret here. We are still in a bull channel on the 1h tf and bears would need a 1h bar close below the 20ema for a start. The previous times we got above 2740, we printed huge bear reversal bars and I am hoping for another one tomorrow. Bears are also seeing this as at least 3 legs up and they want another decent pull-back for at least 50 points like the prior ones.
Invalidation is above 2765.
short term: Neutral. Waiting for bears to come around here at big resistance. If they fail, we see 2800 soon. No bigger interest in buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 1h tf at 2722 before EU open. Otherwise just any pullback to the 1h 20ema.
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