Long Signal in MRO

Big Picture:
MRO has retraced 69% (81 days) of its $8.73 decline from $19.28 to $10.55 (250 days). Coming off this strong retracement, MRO has pulled back $2.23 (37%) to a low of $14.36, and is now showing signs of continuation.

The Signal:
On 11/24, the 10-day RSI closed above the highest 10-day RSI value of the pullback. Also on the 11/24 close, an EMA crossover on the weekly timeframe signaled a change in trend.

The Caveats:
1. 11/24 was a half-day, so trading volume was very low.
2. Overhead resistance at $16.50 could limit upside. At $16.50, trade is barely 2:1 reward/risk.
3. Stop-loss of $14.67 (11/22 low) is inside the 2x ATR of $0.90 and presents a whipsaw risk.

The verdict:
This is the best trade that I have fleshed-out, this weekend. The potential break of $16.50 makes this trade very compelling, but that remains very speculative and risky at this point.