MSFT: Double-Top, or Bull Flag Breakout?

31 oct. 2023

MSFT is showing a mixture of bullish and bearish signals; however, the most concerning of which is an active rug pull event which kicked off on March 16, 2023 at $265.20 via the 2D timeframe:



This coincides with a large RSI divergence event occurring on the larger timeframes; highlighting the potential for a double-top:



That being said, there appears to also be a major bull flag forming on the larger timeframes:



If we dive a bit deeper into the smaller timeframes and analyze the bull flag, we see another active rug pull at $345. This signals a high likelihood MSFT will hit $345 in the near future:



With a high degree of both bullish and bearish signals, it can be hard to discern where MSFT might be headed next.

We are keeping a very close eye on the AVWAP derived from the March 16 event as a guiding factor. Should the price significantly break below this level, we expect further drawdown to $265 will occur.

2 nov. 2023

Note

First target at $345 has been reached. AVWAP very much in-tact. Awaiting signs of a reversal to begin targeting $265 range

7 nov. 2023

Note

MSFT along with the broader markets saw an incredible boost in price during this past week. The RSI appears to be extended far above its moving average, signaling a likelihood that price action will consolidate from these levels or retest important support



We see a multi-year bearish divergence trendline in the RSI. As of today, MSFT has not yet broken this resistance. We feel this is the primary factor in determining whether the double-top (bearish) or bull-flag (bullish) outcome will ultimately occur. See below:

14 déc. 2023

Note

Despite the bull-flag breakout, it appears the 4-year bearish divergence on the RSI was rejected at resistance. Until MSFT breaks this resistance, it is unlikely to make any meaningful momentum upwards.

Could this be a warning signal for the broader market as a whole as it nears ATHs?