MSFT - Looking for a drop

29 déc. 2018

Continuing from my previous analysis ("Looking for a bounce") ... we got the bounce I was looking for, so now looking for a drop to around 92 region over the next few weeks. Targets haven't changed since the original analysis -- from the 1.000 fib I'm expecting it to reach at least the 2.000 fib, completing the C wave. Based on the long-term chart and wave sizes, I'm considering this to be only Intermediate (A) of Primary 4, and expecting a (B) wave bounce starting after that.

Current position "neutral". I'm carrying 200 shares from pre-2010 and not looking to sell them until sometime in 2019, during the (B) wave rally. I'm hedging the downside with protective puts, and will add more once the drop gets underway for higher returns.

5 janv. 2019

Note

1/4 update - moved the 'iv' marker as MSFT made a slightly higher high today (by $0.10), and re-drew the channel to accommodate this last run-up. Still looking for another low in the 92 region. Bought some more puts, it's looking set to drop soon, but may get one last small pop higher.

11 janv. 2019

Note

1/11 update - well it took long enough, but MSFT seems to have finally begun the drop. This last top could still potentially be [iv] with C as an ending diagonal, but it's also possible that the December low was it, and larger (A) completed as a WXY instead of ABC (similar to my SPX Blue Count).

If we're still in C of (A), the deep retrace as 'iv' means that 'v' may truncate and only reach 1.618 extension around 95, or at best make a nominal new low near the December low. If instead (A) is ended and we're now starting (B), my best guess is that it will likely target somewhere in the same region, or maybe get held up around 96-97 at the previous support.

In either case I expect MSFT to retest prior support, and possibly retest the lows over the next few weeks. My current position is slightly more Short than Long.

2 févr. 2019

Note

2/2 Update - stronger than expected rally in January, retracing 61.8% of the move down since October so I'm counting it as "All of Minor B". Not (B) like in my previous Alt-Count - recalculating the targets seems to indicate we're still in (A). Now looking for the Minor C down, which may have begun this past week with the drop after earnings. That would complete Intermediate (A) in the 85-90 region.