NEO - Bulls in the Pasteur Bears in Hibernation

Today someone posted on my blog that I may have my count wrong and that NEO could correct further. Well I'm not perfect and though I could see a possibility I decided to open up my chart with daily bars instead of 30 minute. NEO has some track record but not much, so it is hard to compare previous movements with current because in the 1 day time frame this is the first major bull cycle. So I started with my trend channels and then added the waves and various corrections. Since wave 3 was very bullish, and the move in wave 1 looked more typical of a movement I drew a long straight trend channel past the current position as if we were in a perfect world. But this is the real world not perfect. I quickly noticed something I had missed before. At Point E (after wave 4) we barely touched the "perfect" trend and quickly entered the last impulse wave 5. It has now occured to me that this has become support for the consolidation after the current ABC correction. Interesting. But I'm hunting for Bears and what would lead me to believe, and more importantly spot a bearish trend reversal.

In order for me to consider NEO has entered a bearish cycle, a few things have to take place. First I would need to see NEO break through and form a correction continuation in the yellow channel that passes through the longer term green trend. But this doesn't signal Bear it just increases the probability it may happen. I would also want it to pass through the former resistance line (green) that at point B following the 4th wave. And finally I want to see a confirmation in the RSI. These are my notes so I do not have to recreate this again and it acts as a cheat sheet. I am looking for specific trends, resistance levels, and buy/sell levels that line up with the wave cycles above. Now since NEO is new there isn't a lot of data so I'm basing it on what I have. It recently tested the Bear T1 line in the RSI but I which is by the only measure I have is not bearish. It would need to pass through 30. If NEO breaches the long term trend and below the channel and green line, I would look to get out of the position. But as long as it stays above all or most the bull is still grazing in the fields and the bears are still hibernating, though there have been sightings over the past week.

Well short of a black swan event, or more news from china ;), I do not feel that the overall bullish trend of NEO has changed. Corrections are healthy in any market, and should not only be expected, but should be anticipated to happen. This is where a lot of younger investors get frustrated. This morning I posted four graphs, of which one of the coins I have dropped from my portfolio. But the other three OMG, NEO and QTUM I remain vested. As you know I consider OMG the California Chrome of cryptos, second to none (outside the big 3) and it is the largest holding in my portfolio, and well warranted. But NEO and QTUM proved through this correctional wave that they are not to be thrown to the curb. Yet. Now I'm still not sold completely on NEO as it has no market penetration, and is based on rumors, and promises, with no working product (please correct me if I'm wrong). But as I have stated before I could trade jelly beans on the gummy bear exchange with a chart and as long as the graph is bullish, I'll continue to trade. The most important item is knowing when to get out.