Could Netflix fall to 250?

22 mars 2022

I see this being a dead cat bounce. Netflix is bleeding subscribers, raising prices and adding restrictions on users.
The pandemic is ending and I see the price returning around where it was prior to the release of Disney Plus. Streaming is much more popular these days but there are a ton of competitors out there. Netflix is not the only big dog anymore. At this point a Netflix subscription costs almost as much as a gym membership and people have been cooped up for a long time.

This is just my opinion from looking at the chart and some macro economics.

23 mars 2022

Note

Everyone here thinks this is just crazy talk. But let me be real for a second.
Netflix has PE ratio of 35!
That is what is crazy. A company that isn't growing should have a PE ratio of 10-15 A company that is expected to double in size within 10 years should have a PE ratio of 20. A company that is expected to increase 4x in size should have a PE ratio of 30.
This is the rule of thumb.
For Netflix to have a PE ratio of 35 it means you expect it to either increase its subscriber count by around 400% within the next 10 years or cut its operating costs in half while doubling its subscriber count. I personally do not buy it. This may all be shouting at clouds but I feel Netflix will take a nosedive.

This is just a man shouting at clouds, not financial advise.

23 mars 2022

Note

For reference, Netflix earnings per share from January of 2022 was up only 3% from January 2020.