When do you prefer to catch falling knives- nat gas up 9%

Nat gas isnt a stock, its also a weird commodity.
Its almost always oversold and cheap, and then all of a sudden its wrecking shorts.
Remember James Cordier? the option seller who blew up his clients selling calls on nat gas? geez. tough.

Any who, there momentum divergences in nat gas, showing the selling is slowing.
theres lot of volume showing interest.
I saw a guy on youtube saying he likes it.
I saw a guy (well respected) saying hes taking a stab at it.
today its up almost 10%.

From past experience, its better to be late to the party.
its better to be the 2nd mouse in the mouse trap, not the first.
The first one gets dead, the 2nd mouse gets the cheese.