Favorable risk reward in natural gas

Natural gas is currently on the long term trendline and holding after massive price appreciations, whipshaw, consolidation, and sell off. Nat gass is down around a dollar in the past month, around 22%.

Technicals:
RSI: Super oversold on daily
Open and close below weekly bollinger band, hyper extended.
Fundamentals:
Dollar per unit of energy nat gas still remains highly competitive, espcially in the U.S. where nat gas trades cheap.
increasing sanctions on europe by US partners might leas the U.S. to loosen controls on nat gas exportation, thereby raising prices.
Winter is coming.
Nat gas usage is growing throughout the U.S.,

Natgas could base here, or maybe breach trendline a ittle bit. I would sell below trendline if breached strongly. risk is 12c and upside is 36-60c over next 3 months.