Indices Go All Over, Yet End Almost Jaise The

9 sept. 2021

NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -09-09-21

IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17312.85 / 17379.65 / 17302.7 / 17369.25 [+15.75 /+0.09%]
H-L = 77 points
VIX 13.94 / -3.26%
FII DII: +1127 Crores
Likely open: From the above, it looks like a flat to positive open but what may happen in the world markets tomorrow
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS

A gap-down open was immediately bought into and NIFTY attempted to take out the closing high of yesterday and then gradually sold off.

It was a choppy day for the index being the expiry day as there were many tussles between the big heads. The range for the day was only 77 points.

NIFTY ended the day in mild green and also held 17300 levels as the low for the day was 17302. Some consolation from yesterday.


NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

The Weight Lifters

NESTLE 14
BAJAJ FINSERV 07
BHARTI AIRTEL 07
TCS 04
GRASIM 03
TOTAL 35

The Laggards

SBI LIFE 11
HDFC BANK 08
RELIANCE 05
BAJAJ FINANCE 05
TITAN 04
TOTAL 33

Lifter - Draggers = +02


POSITIVES
NIFTY ended the day in the mild green.

NIFTY ended the week at a new ATH though it does not appear to be decisive.

NIFTY did not break 17300 on an intraday basis.

FIIs DIIs have together bought in excess of 1000 Crores.

NEGATIVES

NIFTY could not go anywhere near 17400.

BANK NIFTY range was just less than 300 points which were evident from the choppy movements and it ended in the red below 36700.

The leaders lack momentum and traction. KOTAK BANK appeared strong at the open but by EOD, it has closed on the 200 DMA line - fence-sitting as usual.

TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 13-09-21

17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY.

BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200.

INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS

There were 3 spells on the 5-minute chart of BANK NIFTY that seemed to have been triggered by Algos. These occurred in the candle starting from 1305, 1435, and 1455. The range was more or less similar but the pact varied.

I observed this as I had my trades on and just as I thought I may have to exit the trade at a loss, it spiked and my trade was still in play. The 1455 candle and the one that followed it were game-changers.

I was waiting for a dip before 1500h and had kept 36500 CE ready to hit Buy. The premium plummeted and was down 40+ points to 92. As I opened the window and was about to hit the Buy button, I saw that it was back at 132. The point where I had thought of exiting! And then it kept spiking!

And in the final 10 minutes, it appeared to be an open secret that the expiry will be below 36700 as the index went above 36700 and immediately dipped and that sealed the fortunes of 36700 CE writers in green.

The above series of events makes me wonder if the expiry drama is all staged by those who have the muscle power. From a low of 92 on that candle of 1455-1500, it added 90 more points in premium and the Option expired at 182 [36500 CE].

Another interesting thing on the BANK NIFTY chart of 5 minutes chart is the W pattern - is this on account of psychology or algology?



What do you feel about this?


Thank you, and Happy Money Making!

Umesh
09-09-21

P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.

NOTE --

This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.