NOVO NORDISK B A/SMis à jour NOVO has developed an H&S formation
As others have also mentioned on Trading View, NOVO has developed an H&S formation.
The formation is to some extent supported by volume.
Volume should be large when forming the left shoulder 1, as well as when forming the head 2, and when the price goes down at the right shoulder 4, but when forming the right shoulder the volume should be low 3. It is not.
Since May, the volume balance has been negative, i.e. high volume at the price bottom and low volume at the price peak.
At 794, there will be a significant break of 3%, especially if it is supported by high volume.
There is no significant break yet.
The object is heading towards 629.
An H&S formation is a reversal formation. NOVO has been in a bullish trend, according to MA. However, the price is now below SMA 200.
The price momentum indicators go from sell to buy within a month on Trading View.
The price is well below a red cloud in Ichimocu.
It is not possible to say now whether we will have a significant break down or whether the price will recover. The forecast will depend on this.
Fundamentally, analysts are predominantly positive about the stock.
Many companies would like to enter the obesity market, but there are far from good results in a phase 1 study to a finished drug, if it becomes a drug at all.
Disclaimer: I have a relatively large position in the stock, which I bought when the shares plunged during the covid19 epidemic. I have sold 1/4 share when the price had tripled, so I am thinking of sitting still now even in the face of the technical picture - I am long.
In the past, price has fluctuated between two pivot lines at times. Then I have swing traded NOVO.
NB: Remember you must do your own research and assessment before buying and selling.
The formation is to some extent supported by volume.
Volume should be large when forming the left shoulder 1, as well as when forming the head 2, and when the price goes down at the right shoulder 4, but when forming the right shoulder the volume should be low 3. It is not.
Since May, the volume balance has been negative, i.e. high volume at the price bottom and low volume at the price peak.
At 794, there will be a significant break of 3%, especially if it is supported by high volume.
There is no significant break yet.
The object is heading towards 629.
An H&S formation is a reversal formation. NOVO has been in a bullish trend, according to MA. However, the price is now below SMA 200.
The price momentum indicators go from sell to buy within a month on Trading View.
The price is well below a red cloud in Ichimocu.
It is not possible to say now whether we will have a significant break down or whether the price will recover. The forecast will depend on this.
Fundamentally, analysts are predominantly positive about the stock.
Many companies would like to enter the obesity market, but there are far from good results in a phase 1 study to a finished drug, if it becomes a drug at all.
Disclaimer: I have a relatively large position in the stock, which I bought when the shares plunged during the covid19 epidemic. I have sold 1/4 share when the price had tripled, so I am thinking of sitting still now even in the face of the technical picture - I am long.
In the past, price has fluctuated between two pivot lines at times. Then I have swing traded NOVO.
NB: Remember you must do your own research and assessment before buying and selling.
Note
There is support around 715 and 660, but remember if price is in an trend then the trend is normally more significant than support levels.
Note
If the price goes above 842, preferably with a large volume, the sell signal from the H&S formation must be considered neutralized.Transaction en cours
One must take technical signs that have been interpreted by a competent person seriously. Some do not believe in technical analysis, but empirical data and in some cases statistical research support technical analysis. Remember technical analysis gives a forecast not an absolute answer.
Note
Novo has entered a falling trend. It can be seen by chart and SMA50<SMA100<SMA200.
Novo will remain so until proven otherwise.
Lately, the volume balance has been positive, but RSI21 remains low.
The price is still well below a red cloud in Ichimoku.
Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte
There are some factors to be aware of:
In Novo's study with Cagrisema, a weight loss of 20.4% is achieved after 68 weeks of treatment, but only 57% of patients reached the maximum dose.
In Eli Lilly's study with Zepbound, a weight loss of 20.9% is achieved after 72 weeks of treatment, but here only patients who reached the maximum dose were included.
How many of Eli Lilly’s patients dropped out because they didn’t reach the maximum dose?
Why did only 57% of Novo’s patients reach the full dose? Was it due to side effects? Or was the patient satisfied with the weight loss they had at a lower dose? Or were they concerned about a yo-yo effect if they lost weight too quickly?
Novo plans to conduct a new study, but wouldn’t it be interesting if they reported the weight loss for those who reached the maximum dose in the study they have already conducted?
It is incorrect to compare these two studies because the conditions are not the same.
Disclaimer: I have a position in both Novo and Eli Lilly.
Note
Novo experienced a dip on December 20, 2024, following the results of REDEFINE 1. However, the price has since returned to a downward trend. The price will remain in a downward trend until proven otherwise. Trends are typically more significant than support and resistance lines.
Note
Here is an update:
There are some factors to be aware of when comparing Cagrisema and Zepbound.
Novo’s study “REDEFINE 1” on Cagrisema is currently only available as an abstract (1), but it is expected to be published in a medical journal this year.
Eli Lilly’s study “SURMOUNT 1” on Zepbound is published in The New England Journal of Medicine (2).
In Novo’s study with Cagrisema, a weight loss of 22.7% was achieved after 68 weeks of treatment, but only 57.3% of the patients were on the maximum dose at the end of the study. The protocol was flexible, allowing patients to adjust their dosage up or down throughout the study.
There were multiple arms in the study, but the arm with Cagrisema is the relevant one here. The number of patients who completely discontinued Cagrisema is not provided.
In Eli Lilly’s study with Zepbound, a weight loss of 20.9% was achieved after 72 weeks of treatment, but only patients who reached the maximum dose were included, meaning 15 mg weekly. The study was divided into multiple arms with lower doses and placebo, but all had worse results than the arm with 15 mg.
Of all arms receiving active medication, 86% completed the study. Among those on 15 mg, 6.2% discontinued due to side effects.
These two studies have such different designs that they are difficult to compare.
Several studies are planned, but to my knowledge, none will directly compare the two drugs.
Additionally, there are more new medications on the way, including Retatrutide from Eli Lilly, which showed a weight loss of 24.2% in a Phase 2 study.
References
(1)
globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/12/20/3000444/0/en/Novo-Nordisk-A-S-CagriSema-demonstrates-superior-weight-loss-in-adults-with-obesity-or-overweight-in-the-REDEFINE-1-trial.html
(2)
nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2206038
Disclaimer: I hold positions in both Novo and Eli Lilly.
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