Short

More Rough Ride Ahead?

Mis à jour

This retracement has look and feel of a B wave, choppy and hesitant. Got a H&S in the 15 minute chart on 11/11.

Expect another leg lower soon IMO. Should push down to test support at the old ATH IMO. RSI went oversold, bounced, fades.

Likely to get a big bounce (arrow) after the C leg, retest ATH in December. 19 Nov OpeX likely to be pretty choppy IMO.

Sold off -300 pips and has bounced back a bit more than 200 of that in the AM lift. Now in descending stair-step pattern.

Measured move would end around 15815, give or take a bit. Selling could come at anytime, so unpredictable.

Wouldn't trade dailies on this as it might take a week to come off, could be tomorrow, who knows?!
I see lower lows and lower highs in daily charts on SPX, DJI. NQ looks like a sawblade fgs.

Opening position in ten QQQ 24 Nov 392Pp spread short the 15 Nov 382, net debit $4.12.
DYODD, GLTA!

Transaction en cours

Closed on early weakness look for re-entry

Transaction en cours

Back in Nov 391P on the lift, 20 $5 spreads

Note

Added ten spreads short Monday 386 dailies

Note

Rolled the monday short legs down to weds 381s, added ten spreads, now in 40 $10 bear spreads

Note

Added ten more for 50 spreads, enough damage done already fgs

Transaction en cours

Covered the short legs for .50c a nickel gained, added ten 391 nov puts, holding 60 outright

Trade fermée: ordre d’arrêt atteint

Forced out

Note

Goldarn Meltup again FFS, greed is good again

Note

Starts to look like this idea might pan out after all. Clipped a few pips on the AM sell Monday.

They might buy this little dip; or the real selling could start soon. Will soon see, watching it.

Transaction en cours

a double top. shorted in 26 nov qqq 398p, 15 bear spreads

Note

Closed on early weakness, watch, wait

Transaction en cours

Well this GDMD idea turned out to be spot on after all, just we never got a secondary selloff, was more like a flat and then bully double top.

So unpredictable! NOT going full bore short here, copy this post in case you missed it:

Follow-up, still do not feel that going full bore short is a good idea... another damned parabolic can come in here anytime, NQ has not fully double topped, need to see QQQ go over $400, ES might get push to another ATH.

IF you follow Peter Eliades, very useful insights, he projected top on 5 nov and now claims this will prove to be the ultimate ATH. So far, it holds, check out his app:
stockmarketcycles.com/servic...

He called the bottom in 1974 and been rolling ever since. He called the top on 3 Sep a month before, and says we have now reached the Top of the Century.

We will see...

Note

Oops, the public link, free charts and analysis: youtube.com/c/stockmarketcycles

Transaction en cours

Took a small bear spread in the 29 Nov 398p short Fridays' 393ps, ten spreads net debit 3.70

Note

Rolled short legs AH to Monday 390p, for Even

Trade fermée manuellement

Added on the lift and closed on the drop. Decent day!

Transaction en cours

Flipped calls on the bounce. Frustrating trades to say the least, opens so damned bullish and press to ATH then Wham! I did okay but you get real tired of watching puts melt ffs... IMO some fierce selling coming soon, triple witching Friday might not be so bully?!

Note

Just watching back in cash. so damned fluctuant, sold $2, bounced $1, now will they bull it back to ATH?

Or we gonna see a flashcrash?! Pure guesswork, but starts to look pretty dicey up here...

Transaction en cours

Shorting the rally:
QQQ Diagonal
+10 Nov21/Nov-29-21 395/400 Put Diagonal
-10 Nov21 $395 Puts
+10 Nov-29-21 $400 Puts

@3.80 net debit

Note

Added 5 spreads @ 3.72

Transaction en cours

Added ten more on the lift back at HOTD, nuts!

Note

Opened 5 spreads in 401p, rolled teh nov 395s to Monday 394p

Trade fermée manuellement

Closed all for a push. Gone from flashcrash to gdmd bullish ffs. Whipsawing at top. You know this is the top but how it hangs here is amazing, just kills shorts.

Note

Probably a short entry EOD. Just gonna get whipped again IMO, short-covering soon

Transaction en cours

Flipped some calls at 2pm, margin call liquidations

Note

Opened bear put spread in 3 Dec 401p short friday's 396p, ten spreads

Note

Entered 401 strikes just OTM at 401.05; net debit 4.43;

got .81c for the short legs, lotta money with a day left

Transaction en cours

Added 5 spreads. More EOD if it looks good IMO

Transaction en cours

Rolled 15 short 396p to 11/24 392 for Even

Transaction en cours

Added 5 spreads, rolled the 392p to 26 nov 390p for 0.01cr (even)

Note

Added 5 more at HOTD revisited EOD. In 25 now.

Note

Picked up ten 402p on the EOD rush

Transaction en cours

Added ten 402p and short the friday 397p in a $5 spread, 20, see if they expire

Note

Rolled the 397s out, too close IMO, got .17c credit for the 24 Nov 394p

Trade fermée manuellement

Rolled up and then closed out for a wee drawdown. The short legs kept my end up. Spent Friday flipping strikes on puts and calls.

The euphoric bullishness of NQ in face of weaker RTY and DJI is characteristic of a blowoff bubble about to burst IMO

Note

BTW, I cannot believe evry time I look at QQQ it says $405 OMG, how?! LOL

Note

Re-visiting this post, click the progress arrow button, amazingly in spite of all the bearishness, this damned index is still really high! There is a LOT OF ROOM to downside for a real crashover IMO; BUT should consider past week may be just a grindy sideways correction leading to a move higher!

Trading this index hurts, lol. Evrytime you think it's going long, pivot reverse kills ur longs, then you say, okay well, go short! And lose both ways fgs. GLTA!

DaddySawbucks

Publications connexes

Correction: Work in Progress

par DaddySawbucks

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