Nextracker Inc.Long
12/6/24 - $nxt - Reloaded the cannon ~$36
Mis à jour
- a name i've written most about
- have traded it around, but remained pretty large (since the big eps pop i've taken some off the table to play some btc related stuff, some win's, some L's across the board)
- but at this level ~50% retrace from pre-EPS to post-EPS peak, you're looking at $6 of upside/ vs $6 of downside. why this is important is that this is a name where you can feel comfortable buying lower with conviction so the risk weighted up/downside is probably now a 2-1 in the ST.
- but zoom out.
- stock does about $3 of cash (literally one of the best free cash flow converters i've come across... net income -> cash). HIGH ROE's on this puppy. growing backlog. great CEO. leader in the tracker category set to dominate the software side of biz in the coming years.
- so 10% fcf yield on a 10-15% grower is simply put... an extended black friday cyber monday sale.
- if the market dumps, you can expect this one probably remains a weak link, unfortunately. the solar factor remains a tough one to own
- while most ppl on this site are all about TA, lines and px action (and this matters in the ST - much more than valuation - price is king)... i'm more of a fundamental guy (always have been) and use TA as the icing on the cake. won't lie TA looks thumbs down here all else equal. but for such a unique asset, i'm greedy when others are buying bags off 50x sales co's (enjoy lol).
that's all.
have a great weekend.
V
PS - my weapon of choice is the jan 15 2027 25C's. i've been basically making the mkt in these things for a while - so the last month(s) that's me... :P
- have traded it around, but remained pretty large (since the big eps pop i've taken some off the table to play some btc related stuff, some win's, some L's across the board)
- but at this level ~50% retrace from pre-EPS to post-EPS peak, you're looking at $6 of upside/ vs $6 of downside. why this is important is that this is a name where you can feel comfortable buying lower with conviction so the risk weighted up/downside is probably now a 2-1 in the ST.
- but zoom out.
- stock does about $3 of cash (literally one of the best free cash flow converters i've come across... net income -> cash). HIGH ROE's on this puppy. growing backlog. great CEO. leader in the tracker category set to dominate the software side of biz in the coming years.
- so 10% fcf yield on a 10-15% grower is simply put... an extended black friday cyber monday sale.
- if the market dumps, you can expect this one probably remains a weak link, unfortunately. the solar factor remains a tough one to own
- while most ppl on this site are all about TA, lines and px action (and this matters in the ST - much more than valuation - price is king)... i'm more of a fundamental guy (always have been) and use TA as the icing on the cake. won't lie TA looks thumbs down here all else equal. but for such a unique asset, i'm greedy when others are buying bags off 50x sales co's (enjoy lol).
that's all.
have a great weekend.
V
PS - my weapon of choice is the jan 15 2027 25C's. i've been basically making the mkt in these things for a while - so the last month(s) that's me... :P
Transaction en cours
I'd note on the risk/reward mentioned above re: zoom out.
i think 6-7% fcf yield is probably the right starting pt for this asset which puts valuation closer to the $50 level. so 50% upside and i'd estimate at most 25% downside (and that's conservative, over a beer my conviction/ sizing - now about 50% of book - would suggest 50-100% upside to fair value and probably 15-20% downside). i'd take that bet every day. the key is sizing. will update if/when more movement happens.
V
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