NZDUSD sell

5 août 2016

The NZDUSD is setting up a nice sell trade. As a result of today's data we saw a bearish impulse and although it is too soon to tell this might just be setting up for a nice leading diagonal lower. Overlaps are allowed in a leading diagonal and I'm interested in selling the next leg lower (5th wave lower). This would also indicate more bearish momentum to be next. But keep in mind that like I said it is too soon to tell but something to keep in mind for trading next week.
I'll be looking for a sell after this consolidation comes to an end.

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9 août 2016

Note

I'll be looking to sell wave 5

9 août 2016

Note

Guy's since we are all excited about the rate decision of the RBNZ let's have a look at the scenario's based on structure.
First scenario: a leading diagonal lower for wave 1 (this is the red wave count and might present a sell trade soon). After a leading diagonal we often see a sharp correction for wave 2.
Second scenario: we see the beginning of a bearish extension (this is the green wave count and also might present a sell trade soon).
Third scenario; the market will see a surprise from RBNZ and reverse bullish again (this is the orange wave count for an ABC, this also will present a sell trade soon but short lived)


use a tradeplan and manage the trade or wait and let it all settle and trade the trend after the next consolidation.

10 août 2016

Note

The ABC wave count in orange happened to be the correct one. I'll update prior to the RBNZ rate statement. Hope this charts showed how to keep an open mind especially up to a major event, so manage the trade accordingly to the possible scenario's. However bigger picture and outlook for Kiwi didn't change.

10 août 2016

Note

Example of how to trade NZDUSD later today (it is an example and we will see more price action but the concept remains the same. You can either use a pending order if we see a clear impulse-consolidation or be more conservative and let price settle first.

Keep an eye on what structure is leading at the moment on the 4 hour time frame:

Also have a look for context and my bigger picture post of a month ago: