OXT ORCHID PROTOCOL LOOKING FOR A LONG ENTRY IN THIS AREA.
Mis à jour
Hello Traders,
Welcome to my OXT Orchid Protocol chart and trade idea.
Firstly I want to say that I like technology but am not a "hard core" techy that can code or has any experience in encryption etc etc so from a technical perspective
I know what OXT claims it can do but I dont know if this tech is actually any good or not.
If you ARE a techy please leave a comment to say why you think this tech is good or bad and we can have a discussion in the comments.
I am looking at this chart purely from a technical perspective starting with Elliot Wave Theory, so here goes.
This chart does not have much price history but price bottomed on 12/03/20 at $0.09666 which we will "assume" is the bottom.
Since the bottom price looks to have made a PRIMARY wave 1 and wave 2 as drawn on the chart. I have also drawn the MINOR Elliot Waves inside the first PRIMARY wave 1. This would suggest price is currently inside a PRIMARY wave 3. Wave 3 is normally the most bullish wave.
Wave 3 should contain 5 MINOR impulse waves. Using basic Elliot Wave theory this makes me think price is currently completing MINOR wave 4 and is about to start its MINOR wave 5 inside of the PRIMARY wave 3.
I have marked the top of MINOR wave 1 in purple (EW FAIL PAST HERE). Price falling below this level with a few wicks is OK, but price falling below and hanging around under this level would look bearish and break the bullish market structure. Pay attention to this level.
Putting EW theory to the side for the moment we can see the price has dropped around 75% in 55 days. Buy low sell high a 75% dip is enticing. PRIMARY wave 2 did a 40% retrace in 56 days, around the same time period of correction as this wave. This market is not perfectly symmetrical
but basic logic would hint at a possible change in direction here.
The daily 200 MA (in RED) is an important technical level. Traders will want to see the 200 MA respected as support for price. Price at this level does represent "value" as the price has not strayed too far from the mean.
The daily RSI is also possibly about to print some bullish divergence. Price needs to hold this level for a few days and the bull div will be printed. The 4hr hour is showing some bullish divergence.
So, the trade...
1. What do I want to see here that will confirm my long position intention?
2. What will look bad here invalidating my trade idea?
1. "IF" price comes down a bit more to the daily 200 MA (it does not have to, its not the law) I will want to see the Daily 200 MA act as an area of support. A few wicks below is OK, but I want to see the daily 200 MA act as support and I want to see price bouncing off that daily 200 MA.
If price does hold that level and prints bullish divergence on the daily and 4hr this looks good and helps confirm the long trade. This says to me bulls defended a key area. So again, price holding this key level with bullish divergence is a yes, this will take a few days to happen, no rush.
2. "IF" price falls to the daily 200 MA and falls below and closes under the daily 200 MA this will not look so good. If the price then goes down even further and starts messing around under the purple EW fail line then price will be breaking the bullish market structure and it would suggest bulls have failed to defend a key area.
The problem with this approach is markets are assholes. It actually wouldn't surprise me if the price did break the 200 MA and flirt with the EW fail line, just to look super bearish and dead. That is still a 10.5% drop from the current price though and would erase the bullish divergence that is forming on the daily RSI.
I want to be patient and watch what happens to the price over the next few days. Its not about catching the exact bottom or entering a trade right now (with hope) and putting your stop just under the EW fail line. I would like to monitor this area for signs of momentum change and if confirmed flow with the direction.
Targets, if this long idea works.
This is such a deep retrace for a wave 4 that it makes wave 5 look almost silly and elongated. Maybe we are in an ABC correction (conspiracy shocker).
$1.14 is an obvious area which is just under that resistance trend line and fib cluster which would be my first TP. The green box is a broad bullish target area.
I have put 2 fib sets on this chart. Without much historical price data to go off I don't have as much confidence as I normally would in this particular fib method. A fib extension target is on the chart also.
Rate my chart, leave a comment. If your rich donate.
Remember, DYOR, compare and ask questions. Risk management.
Welcome to my OXT Orchid Protocol chart and trade idea.
Firstly I want to say that I like technology but am not a "hard core" techy that can code or has any experience in encryption etc etc so from a technical perspective
I know what OXT claims it can do but I dont know if this tech is actually any good or not.
If you ARE a techy please leave a comment to say why you think this tech is good or bad and we can have a discussion in the comments.
I am looking at this chart purely from a technical perspective starting with Elliot Wave Theory, so here goes.
This chart does not have much price history but price bottomed on 12/03/20 at $0.09666 which we will "assume" is the bottom.
Since the bottom price looks to have made a PRIMARY wave 1 and wave 2 as drawn on the chart. I have also drawn the MINOR Elliot Waves inside the first PRIMARY wave 1. This would suggest price is currently inside a PRIMARY wave 3. Wave 3 is normally the most bullish wave.
Wave 3 should contain 5 MINOR impulse waves. Using basic Elliot Wave theory this makes me think price is currently completing MINOR wave 4 and is about to start its MINOR wave 5 inside of the PRIMARY wave 3.
I have marked the top of MINOR wave 1 in purple (EW FAIL PAST HERE). Price falling below this level with a few wicks is OK, but price falling below and hanging around under this level would look bearish and break the bullish market structure. Pay attention to this level.
Putting EW theory to the side for the moment we can see the price has dropped around 75% in 55 days. Buy low sell high a 75% dip is enticing. PRIMARY wave 2 did a 40% retrace in 56 days, around the same time period of correction as this wave. This market is not perfectly symmetrical
but basic logic would hint at a possible change in direction here.
The daily 200 MA (in RED) is an important technical level. Traders will want to see the 200 MA respected as support for price. Price at this level does represent "value" as the price has not strayed too far from the mean.
The daily RSI is also possibly about to print some bullish divergence. Price needs to hold this level for a few days and the bull div will be printed. The 4hr hour is showing some bullish divergence.
So, the trade...
1. What do I want to see here that will confirm my long position intention?
2. What will look bad here invalidating my trade idea?
1. "IF" price comes down a bit more to the daily 200 MA (it does not have to, its not the law) I will want to see the Daily 200 MA act as an area of support. A few wicks below is OK, but I want to see the daily 200 MA act as support and I want to see price bouncing off that daily 200 MA.
If price does hold that level and prints bullish divergence on the daily and 4hr this looks good and helps confirm the long trade. This says to me bulls defended a key area. So again, price holding this key level with bullish divergence is a yes, this will take a few days to happen, no rush.
2. "IF" price falls to the daily 200 MA and falls below and closes under the daily 200 MA this will not look so good. If the price then goes down even further and starts messing around under the purple EW fail line then price will be breaking the bullish market structure and it would suggest bulls have failed to defend a key area.
The problem with this approach is markets are assholes. It actually wouldn't surprise me if the price did break the 200 MA and flirt with the EW fail line, just to look super bearish and dead. That is still a 10.5% drop from the current price though and would erase the bullish divergence that is forming on the daily RSI.
I want to be patient and watch what happens to the price over the next few days. Its not about catching the exact bottom or entering a trade right now (with hope) and putting your stop just under the EW fail line. I would like to monitor this area for signs of momentum change and if confirmed flow with the direction.
Targets, if this long idea works.
This is such a deep retrace for a wave 4 that it makes wave 5 look almost silly and elongated. Maybe we are in an ABC correction (conspiracy shocker).
$1.14 is an obvious area which is just under that resistance trend line and fib cluster which would be my first TP. The green box is a broad bullish target area.
I have put 2 fib sets on this chart. Without much historical price data to go off I don't have as much confidence as I normally would in this particular fib method. A fib extension target is on the chart also.
Rate my chart, leave a comment. If your rich donate.
Remember, DYOR, compare and ask questions. Risk management.
Note
Here is a close up daily chart showing the area I am looking at. The daily closes in 1 hr which will start confirming the bullish divergence. Note
A close up of the 4 hr chart. Bullish divergence is showing on the 4 hr chart. Note
Right, I think everybody knows that BTC is the number 1 big daddy of them all and as far as price discovery goes, most, if not all of the other crypto's follow the price of Bitcoin in a very similar way. This has been going on for ages now. Sure there are a few coins here and there that print a slightly different pattern to Bitcoin, but reality is ALTS follow Bitcoin price. I knew this and for some reason thought OXT would be different, until I put the BTC chart and OXT chart side by side. They are so similar from a timing perspective on the peaks that I now think OXT is just following the BTC price, just like all the other crap. See the chart comparison below... BTC bottom on 13/03/20 exactly the same as OXT.
OXT top of wave 1 on 9/05/20. Bitcoin made a top on the same day but then did print a slightly different top on 1st June.
OXT top of wave 3 on 16/08/20. Bitcoin made a top 1 day after. The price movements are so similar I dont think OXT has broken away from Bitcoin or is any different.
Note
The horizontal line in black seems to be a key support and resistance area.Note
The bullish divergence is playing out, the price has bounced and looks like it wants to break above these resistance lines. Bitcoin has also broken UP, out of the triangle formation it was in.Note
Lets have another look at OXT on the daily, that bull div gave a bounce and price is still holding the 200 MA.On the 4hr some bullish wicks are forming.
When its like this I go down through the time frames until I see bull div forming on the RSI, the higher the time frame the better but on the 30 minute some bull div is forming.
Price has also retraced in a broadening decending wedge so bottom could be forming here. Want to see a bounce here really.
Note
Hello Traders, this is why its good to be patient, to see how the situation unfolds and pans out. That bounce I would have liked to have seen did not play out and price has fallen below the 200 ma. Price also did not break the diagonal resistance line. The market is doing something weird at the moment, Bitcoin is pumping but everything else is dumping. I have drawn another support trend line on this chart. Again, I want to see the price move up past the 200 ma and break past those diagonal resistance lines to show a bullish move. Note
Yeh not looking great is it. 
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.