What Palantir’s Charts Say Heading Into Monday’s Earnings

Palantir Technologies PLTR had a heck of a year in 2024, running 340% to the upside and joining both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. What does technical and fundamental analysis say about PLTR as the counterterrorism-software maker prepares to report earnings next Monday (Feb. 3) after the bell?

Let’s check it out:

Palantir’s Fundamental Analysis

Palantir has become one of the leading purveyors of big-data infused, AI-accelerated software that has made it a reliable partner for the U.S. government across many fronts. It also counts a growing number of commercial interests as customers as well.

The stock is up another 7.4% year to date as of Thursday’s close. That’s not exactly keeping up with some other cybersecurity stocks, but is beating both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite.

Will Palantir suffer if Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek has found a less-expensive way to put together a large-language model?

Well, PLTR has been volatile this week as DeepSeek’s emergence roiled Wall Street, but it hasn’t been as volatile as the stocks of companies that provide AI infrastructure.

As for Palantir’s upcoming fourth-quarter results, Wall Street is looking for $0.11 in adjusted earnings per share on about $777 million of revenue. That would reflect 37.5% year-over-year earnings growth and 28% y/y revenue gains.

For the full year, the Street is looking for Palantir to earn $0.48 in adjusted EPS on $3.5 billion of revenue. That would be good for 26% annual earnings growth on 25% of y/y revenue gains.

And since the quarter began, all 13 of the 13 top-ranked analysts that I can find that cover PLTR have revised their earnings estimates higher.

As for Palantir’s balance sheet, operating cash flow had been accelerating through Q3, while free cash flow has been positive.

The company has no debt on its books, giving it a very strong balance sheet -- especially for a firm of its size.

Palantir’s Technical Analysis

Now let’s check out PLTR’s six-month chart as of Wednesday afternoon (Jan. 29):

This chart shows Palantir’s upward trend since August, as represented by a Raff Regression model.

Readers will note how well the stock recently responded to a test of its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” denoted with a blue line above). The 50-day SMA has managed to run about even with the Raff Regression model’s lower trendline.

Meanwhile, Palantir’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) is currently looking better than neutral without being overbought.

Similarly, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD, marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) suddenly looks bullish across all three of its components.

For instance, the histogram of the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with blue bars), is above zero.

Palantir’s 12-day EMA (denoted with a black line) is also running above its 26-day EMA (the gold line), while both are running above zero. All of that is considered technically positive for a stock.

Next, let's zoom in on Palantir’s past three months and look at the current trend’s tail end:

This chart tells us that something might be going on with the stock ahead of earnings.

Readers will see that a “cup with handle” pattern (the purple field above) has developed over the past month or so while leaving the stock within its longer trend.

The cup’s right-side apex at $82 represents Palantir’s pivot point in the pattern above. Historically, the stock would need to take and hold this level to take on its next target price. (PLTR closed just below that Thursday at $81.22.)

A failure to take and hold $82 here would mean that PLTR would once again need support at its 50-day SMA ($71.90 in the chart above).

(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle” was long PLTR at the time of writing this column.)

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