2/12/25 - $qqq - Welp. I'm short.

12 févr.

2/12/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: QQQ
Welp. I'm short.

- Back to 45% cash, i only like what i like and i've written about the names i would *like* to see get a bit of a beta-related-risk-off dump so i can put it back in at better pxs, BTC (thru OBTC), NXT, UBER and tsm.

- but look, i've written extensively about what concerns me here on the sequencing related to index, flows etc. so i won't rehash the message. the short here on Q's is nuanced and a bit more than a hedge, i'm defn calling BS.

- inflation leading indicators coming down. growth slowing. no print just yet. EPS prints in rear view and guidance has been mostly sucking w/ a few exceptions, so you see EPS this year being revised lower, multiples reflexively too... it takes time guys... the market isn't as fast as you'd imagine... and stock px drain as 10Y higher, DXY stronger and *surprise* for the moment, cash aint trash.

- so, do we go higher before some reset (and not a crash, those aren't allowed, remember). god knows. but seeing the mkt risk off on today's print tells me (similar to nvda) that market makers and by extension, flows... probably offsides and this wk expires need some help.

- DOGE is deflationary. Team orange can take a victory and "blame" brandon for mistakes if/when dip and call/ protest al sharpton style "rates r too dayum high" once this mini risk off occurs. and then march lows... april new year (do you know why they call it april fools day? look it up... jan 1 isn't really the new year if you're in the klub - which i'm not and will never be)... and we r off to the brrr and higher highs this year.

but everyone wants to extrapolate. nobody can handle the 1% draw downs. buckle up butter cups. if YTD has been tough for you, you're NGMI.

be prepared for all scenarios. hope for the best, plan for the worst. we're in the risk mgmt business, first and foremost.

V

il y a 18 heures

Trade fermée manuellement

watching the ring around the ro...ro...
i can't help but watch stuff just get mooned or doomed after EPS
pays not to take a neck out but be willing to trade anything ex post like GLOB today or NICE yday
you're not getting paid to neck out ex ante
also, increasingly i can't shake the feeling that we're in the depths of the crash with MM rearranging the mag 7 chairs on a seemingly weekly basis to limit vol and drive index higher
everything else w exception of a few names here/there is down substantially from highs
the only diff vs. other crashes is this hasn't happened at the same time. just this guy gets brought out back. shot. that guy's turn. shot.

i suspect we're in the middle of this crash and you'd never know it by watching the index duck.
this is mad max under the hood. pick names that are killed, gen cash and let the passive donks do their thing.

V