Is the rest of the market joining the rally?

The weekly chart (on the bottom) shows that SPY and RSP were highly correlated until early March. After March, we have seen the two separate in YTD returns. The correlation coefficient confirms this break in trading. The breakdown in correlation between the RSP and SPY is most evident between May and June when RSP lost value and SPY gained value.

In the last week, we have seen SPY clear August '22 high. For many, this confirms that a new bull market has begun.


While the RSP is far from its August '22 high, we saw it break a short-term resistance level yesterday (6/13/23). The correlation coefficient is also rising back towards 1. It appears that RSP is beginning a new leg up. I believe a new leg up in the RSP confirms the Bull case for the SPY.

With the Fed decision this week and both equities close to a support/resistance line, I am also watching for the invalidation of this breakout in the RSP and SPY. For me, that would be both equities closing below their near support/resistance lines.