Silver a win-win
Mis à jour
My positioning
Anyone who's been following me for a while knows I've been quite bullish on silver for the past few years. In fact, I initiated my
SLV position in early 2021 when it was in the low 20's and then in late 2022 I rotated almost 50% of that position into 
SILJ when it was right around $8. It was mostly dumb luck but I nearly bottom ticked that market and bought within an hour or so of what's become a multi-year low. I've continued to hold these two core long term positions, while also trading around the core positions when short term setups present themselves.
The win-win
Before I get into the chart technicals I want to get into the fundamentals that I think make silver a win-win in the long term. I typically don't use fundamentals when I trade but I don't consider this a typical in-and-out trade. This is more of a long-term hold based on my own fundamental thesis and supported by chart technicals.
The crux of my win-win thesis is that silver will outperform in both a bullish economic outcome and a bearish economic outcome. In the bullish economic scenario, the already voracious global silver demand will continue to increase as solar, AI and EV demand continues to grow. The question at this point isn't if, but how fast. The rate at which silver is being consumed could outstrip production by as much as 200moz by the end of this decade. While I expect scrap and new mining to somewhat fill that gap, it will eventually create a vacuum that only an increase in price will resolve.
In the bearish scenario the globe slips into a severe recession. This would cause industrial use of silver to plummet but safe haven demand for silver to explode. While the demand in the bullish scenario is more gradual, the demand in the bearish silver is explosive and would likely lead to a hockey stick price move.
The most bearish scenario for silver is that the globe goes into a mild recession, where demand for silver drops materially but the large safe haven demand doesn't materialize as it would in a severe recession. In this case silver may tread water and bounce around in range.
The technicals
The silver chart makes just as compelling of a case as the fundamentals. Silver has what Peter Brandt has affectionately referred to as "the mother of all cup and handles". While the 45 year pattern means this could take quite a long time to play out (years...decades?) it still offers a very nice long term potential and clear boundaries to trade within. Within this very large pattern we often see shorter timeframe patterns form that offer both long and short setups. This sets up a nice situation where you can have a long term core position, and then trade around that core position when shorter term setups present themselves, either long or short.
The next few key support and resistance levels I'll be looking to trade around is the $40 level and the $48 level. Beyond that and we'll be into all-time-high territory where I'll trade whatever price action happens to be at that point in time.
Options
Another nice thing about SLV is it gives us options (no pun intended). For a scenario where I'm long term bullish but I think price has rallied too far, too fast and it's looking a little frothy in the short term, rather than closing some of my spot position outright and risk missing out on further rallying another approach is to sell OTM (out-of-the-money) covered calls. Implied volatility would be elevated so you'd likely be getting paid a good premium, and if price does rally up to or beyond your strike price, then you can either choose to hold and let your shares potentially be called away or if your still bullish you can roll the options up and out (up in strike and out in time). You'll collect more premium and move your sell point to a higher price at the cost of taking on more time risk. There are exhaustive resources out there if you're unfamiliar but interested in this type of strategy.
Anyone who's been following me for a while knows I've been quite bullish on silver for the past few years. In fact, I initiated my
SLV position in early 2021 when it was in the low 20's and then in late 2022 I rotated almost 50% of that position into SILJ when it was right around $8. It was mostly dumb luck but I nearly bottom ticked that market and bought within an hour or so of what's become a multi-year low. I've continued to hold these two core long term positions, while also trading around the core positions when short term setups present themselves.The win-win
Before I get into the chart technicals I want to get into the fundamentals that I think make silver a win-win in the long term. I typically don't use fundamentals when I trade but I don't consider this a typical in-and-out trade. This is more of a long-term hold based on my own fundamental thesis and supported by chart technicals.
The crux of my win-win thesis is that silver will outperform in both a bullish economic outcome and a bearish economic outcome. In the bullish economic scenario, the already voracious global silver demand will continue to increase as solar, AI and EV demand continues to grow. The question at this point isn't if, but how fast. The rate at which silver is being consumed could outstrip production by as much as 200moz by the end of this decade. While I expect scrap and new mining to somewhat fill that gap, it will eventually create a vacuum that only an increase in price will resolve.
In the bearish scenario the globe slips into a severe recession. This would cause industrial use of silver to plummet but safe haven demand for silver to explode. While the demand in the bullish scenario is more gradual, the demand in the bearish silver is explosive and would likely lead to a hockey stick price move.
The most bearish scenario for silver is that the globe goes into a mild recession, where demand for silver drops materially but the large safe haven demand doesn't materialize as it would in a severe recession. In this case silver may tread water and bounce around in range.
The technicals
The silver chart makes just as compelling of a case as the fundamentals. Silver has what Peter Brandt has affectionately referred to as "the mother of all cup and handles". While the 45 year pattern means this could take quite a long time to play out (years...decades?) it still offers a very nice long term potential and clear boundaries to trade within. Within this very large pattern we often see shorter timeframe patterns form that offer both long and short setups. This sets up a nice situation where you can have a long term core position, and then trade around that core position when shorter term setups present themselves, either long or short.
The next few key support and resistance levels I'll be looking to trade around is the $40 level and the $48 level. Beyond that and we'll be into all-time-high territory where I'll trade whatever price action happens to be at that point in time.
Options
Another nice thing about SLV is it gives us options (no pun intended). For a scenario where I'm long term bullish but I think price has rallied too far, too fast and it's looking a little frothy in the short term, rather than closing some of my spot position outright and risk missing out on further rallying another approach is to sell OTM (out-of-the-money) covered calls. Implied volatility would be elevated so you'd likely be getting paid a good premium, and if price does rally up to or beyond your strike price, then you can either choose to hold and let your shares potentially be called away or if your still bullish you can roll the options up and out (up in strike and out in time). You'll collect more premium and move your sell point to a higher price at the cost of taking on more time risk. There are exhaustive resources out there if you're unfamiliar but interested in this type of strategy.
Transaction en cours
For some reason TV covered the entire top of the chart with the sliver deficit graphic so here it is again without the graphic.
Note
Silver is getting absolutely hammered right now. It has been able to catch a bid for 2 weeks. This coincides with a strong rallying dollar which has been rallying non-stop for 6 weeks. There is certainly room for the dollar to run further as we've seen in the past. Imo, silver can drop a bit further and still be "safe", although I wouldn't want to see it drop below $27 for long otherwise we have to consider a larger and deeper pullback, which would likely coincide with a larger rally for the Dollar.
Dad of 5 • Dev • Candlestick Whisperer • Crypto class of 2019
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