SMH shows long term signs of trouble

SMH fails to make new highs since July peak going into sideways trend. This paints a picture of a long term reversal to bear side coming

• Comparing OBV trend with the March and July peak, we see that OBV diverges downwards while price continues indicating reversal
  
• After severe sell off in August, we see that price trends sideways failing to make new highs
  
• The sideways trend is during a typical rough time of the year, so weakness and volatility is expected
  
• Nov and Dec normally bring in strong rallies
  

We could be simply looking at a pullback in time as ETF takes a breather from July peak, before rallying continues. The other alternative is that this may be distribution phase of a high risk sector preparing for a huge sell off.