The notion of mean reversion in equity indexes has lost popularity, but I remain skeptical that this bull market can be sustained through the next Gann Square (3100+). Fortune favors the bold, except when the probabilities favor a crash. Government involvement in the so-called free market may provide another round of emergency liquidity which boosts asset prices still higher. As legislators and central banks consider loosening financial conditions further, global trade has trended downward, and (at least according to ECRI) have yet to find a bottom, let alone a rebound. Gold is back in favor among the rich and powerful. If they were to sustain or increase their recent "flight to safety/quality" (see: TLT), after years of reaching for yield with corporate bonds (see: HYG, JNK), we could see a secular shift in asset valuations that would return major indexes to their respective historical means (as represented in the chart by the red and purple lines). Purple shows 6% linear (non-compounded) annual growth, and the red line is a simple extension from the beginning of "retail" online trading, in the mid-90s. Bollinger Bands show a rough approximation of "fair value", as expressed by the net aggregate opinion of SPX investors. Note the Rate of Change indicators (on bottom) drifted lower throughout 2018, and may resume the downtrend in the second half of 2019.