SPX: Trump was elected at 2200
Mis à jour
Hi Guys,
long time since the last time. I hope you are all well and fine.
Let's dive into it!
March 23 - FED announced it would buy bonds in unlimited numbers and backstop direct loans to companies, the latest in a series of policy steps taken over the past 10 days to calm markets and support the economy.
(reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-markets-fed/feds-bazooka-soothes-dollar-funding-squeeze-idUSKBN21B2IF)
SPX bounced at 2200 (red dotted line) which is the starting point of Trump's US Presidency.
Please click & play the following chart posted on Feb 29 (Sat) in order to review the informations and watch it unfold:
March 3 (Tue) - by cutting rates the FED managed to slow it down at 2950 but the effects of the emergency measures did not last long:(reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-cuts-rates-to-blunt-coronavirus-impact-markets-drop-idUSKBN20Q22F)
March 9 (Mon) - market keep falling. Please click & play the following chart posted on March 6 (Fri) in order to review the informations and watch it unfold:
Just to note that the FED held 6 meetings in March to calm markets. (federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
TECHNICAL:
- price below 200SMA (as in 2015/2016 and in 2018/2019) currently supported at 2200 (A);
- price pulling back from 2200 (A) in what may be a bear rally into 200SMA at approx 50% of Covid19 downtrend from (0 zero);
- VIX maybe on its way below 30 again;
Questions:
1) how long will it take for the market to cross and consolidate above 200SMA and resume Progress again?
2) what what kind of recession is the COVID-19 recession going to be? V-Shaped? L-Shaped? W-Shaped?
3) Is this a virus-related recession, or is it the one economists said was on the horizon?
For information iro The Flash Recession (2nd circle in red) please review the following chart posted on Apr.7, 2019:
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
long time since the last time. I hope you are all well and fine.
Let's dive into it!
March 23 - FED announced it would buy bonds in unlimited numbers and backstop direct loans to companies, the latest in a series of policy steps taken over the past 10 days to calm markets and support the economy.
(reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-markets-fed/feds-bazooka-soothes-dollar-funding-squeeze-idUSKBN21B2IF)
SPX bounced at 2200 (red dotted line) which is the starting point of Trump's US Presidency.
Please click & play the following chart posted on Feb 29 (Sat) in order to review the informations and watch it unfold:
March 3 (Tue) - by cutting rates the FED managed to slow it down at 2950 but the effects of the emergency measures did not last long:(reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-cuts-rates-to-blunt-coronavirus-impact-markets-drop-idUSKBN20Q22F)
March 9 (Mon) - market keep falling. Please click & play the following chart posted on March 6 (Fri) in order to review the informations and watch it unfold:
Just to note that the FED held 6 meetings in March to calm markets. (federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
TECHNICAL:
- price below 200SMA (as in 2015/2016 and in 2018/2019) currently supported at 2200 (A);
- price pulling back from 2200 (A) in what may be a bear rally into 200SMA at approx 50% of Covid19 downtrend from (0 zero);
- VIX maybe on its way below 30 again;
Questions:
1) how long will it take for the market to cross and consolidate above 200SMA and resume Progress again?
2) what what kind of recession is the COVID-19 recession going to be? V-Shaped? L-Shaped? W-Shaped?
3) Is this a virus-related recession, or is it the one economists said was on the horizon?
For information iro The Flash Recession (2nd circle in red) please review the following chart posted on Apr.7, 2019:
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
Note
If we consider the movements made by SPX vs Oil since the start of 2020, we note the followings: Note
Note
Goldman says market is unlikely to make new lows because government is doing ‘whatever it takes’ cnbc.com/2020/04/13/goldman-says-market-is-unlikely-to-make-new-lows.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebarNote
Same article on Yahoo Finance finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-suddenly-believes-the-coronavirus-wont-send-the-sp-500-crashing-another-25-154647763.htmlNote
SPDJ
NQ
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Note
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