The Everything Bubble
Good late evening everyone, this is my first publish so do be gentle!
As you noticed I am looking to go VERY short on our S&P500 for various reasons in the long term with various points of confirmation. As traders, our job is to look for the lowest risk, highest probability trading setups to come knocking on our door. What we must realize is that we are in the mother of all bubbles, and the bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash. Let's continue on!
In the event we do get this crash, I have my touch points of where we could see a bounce before entering into the next channel, or we can go straight through it as our only points of major support would be the tops of the .COM and Housing Bubble. If those are broken, then you may want to keep your positions on the hush hush.
Technicals:
-A clear bearish divergence on my RSI that at the moment is getting rejected be the resistance line.
-We also have decreasing volume ever since our run back up from late 2016.
-I see a repeat in history from 2007, where we touched the 200 EMA (The white line) and going back to test the 50 EMA. (The light blue line) If we purge the 50EMA with a vengence, that may be the nail in the coffin for our 10 year bull run.
Fundamentals:
-Store closures are happening in mass along with layoffs
-Housing market is slowing down, if not declinging in various areas of the USA
-Auto/Student/Credit defaults are on the rise
-22 Trillion national debt
Other Notes:
No one knows when this will happen or how long it will take, but what we know for sure is that what goes up, must come down. It would have been much easier to get our correction back in 2016, but a rousing round of QE was used to prop up the markets. The real question is, what if that doesn't work this time?
I'll update this as we continue on throughout the year
As you noticed I am looking to go VERY short on our S&P500 for various reasons in the long term with various points of confirmation. As traders, our job is to look for the lowest risk, highest probability trading setups to come knocking on our door. What we must realize is that we are in the mother of all bubbles, and the bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash. Let's continue on!
In the event we do get this crash, I have my touch points of where we could see a bounce before entering into the next channel, or we can go straight through it as our only points of major support would be the tops of the .COM and Housing Bubble. If those are broken, then you may want to keep your positions on the hush hush.
Technicals:
-A clear bearish divergence on my RSI that at the moment is getting rejected be the resistance line.
-We also have decreasing volume ever since our run back up from late 2016.
-I see a repeat in history from 2007, where we touched the 200 EMA (The white line) and going back to test the 50 EMA. (The light blue line) If we purge the 50EMA with a vengence, that may be the nail in the coffin for our 10 year bull run.
Fundamentals:
-Store closures are happening in mass along with layoffs
-Housing market is slowing down, if not declinging in various areas of the USA
-Auto/Student/Credit defaults are on the rise
-22 Trillion national debt
Other Notes:
No one knows when this will happen or how long it will take, but what we know for sure is that what goes up, must come down. It would have been much easier to get our correction back in 2016, but a rousing round of QE was used to prop up the markets. The real question is, what if that doesn't work this time?
I'll update this as we continue on throughout the year
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