November Rally?

Extremely bullish day following a favorable CPI print. SPX was up 5.5%. Is this just a short squeeze, or the bullish start to something bigger?

I believe this is the final leg of the (B) wave rally, which will be the last time to unload longs and position short before the (C) wave down.

Tomorrow (11/11) wave (iii) will likely complete in the 3967 - 4000 region. We should then get a retracement for the wave (iv) early next week, likely bottoming on Wednesday (11/16). Support for wave (iv) is in the 3860 - 3865 region. Finally, we should get the wave (v) to complete the (B) wave. Wave (v) of (B) should target the 4050 - 4100 region. Expected target date is 11/23. There's a lot of confluence in that price region:

  • The 0.764 retracement of the August high to the October low is 4130
  • The 200-day SMA will likely be around 4050
  • The A=C target is 4118


Economic CyclesElliott Wave

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