SPX: Momentum Bearish, Nearby Supports, But Big Picture Bullish?

7 juil. 2017

SPX: Do not be fooled by the near term bearish momentum, the major trend that has been pushing this market higher since November is still intact.

June 16th was the most recent swing high, and the current peak of the major trend. Since then price has pulled back to the 2410 area, with yesterday being the second time. 2414 is a .382 support from the most recent upward swing that began on 5/18. Since this market has found buyers in this area, they may appear again which would indicate minor price stability in the near term. In order to see a return of some serious upside momentum, a break of the 2425 resistance would have to materialize.

Until that resistance is taken out, prices are likely to drift lower. How much lower you ask? 2396 is the next major support area, followed by the low 2380s. A break below the 2380 to 70 area will signal a possible medium term consolidation, which can take prices into the lower 2300s.

The key level to watch for is the 2309 to 2300 area. This is major trend support and a break below this would signal that the major bullish trend would no longer be intact, but we are a long way from that level.

Until then any bearish momentum is just a healthy pullback no matter what the mainstream financial media soap opera says.
I will be watching for prices to stabilize around the low 2400s to high 2390s and perhaps a continuation of the major trend from there. Summertime trading is typically characterized by low volume, and unless earnings can provide some catalysts, this price action is relatively normal.

To summarize, near term momentum is bearish, we may see the low 2400s to 2390s, but a break above 2425 will signal that buyers are back and the bullish trend is likely to continue. If 2309 breaks, then the major bullish trend becomes questionable. Questions, comments welcome.