SPX Cycle Analysis

There are some odd coincidences going on with the market. Firstly, examine the 4.5/9 month cycles and how accurately these continue to capture the major turns in the market. Secondly, notice that prior to the 11/8 cycle low (which was anticipated by cycle analysis-see archived posts), the market had a major downside day (especially in light of an absence of volatility from mid-July thru Labor Day). That downside day took place on Friday, Sept 9, 2016. Fast forward to the current market. The latest major downside day (especially evident in NDX/QQQ) was on Friday, June 9, 2017. Notice that Sept 9, 2016 was exactly 60 cd's prior to the 11/8/16 election low. Now, look at how this June 9, 2017 low is exactly in line with 60 cd's prior to the anticipated 8/8/17 cycle low (4.5/9mo) nested lows.

The price action of late has turned decidedly less friendly to Buy the Dipper's as volatility has increased and the sort of "whipsawing" between high's to low's is very similar to the market structure post 9/9/16. This would argue for either a choppy-lower resolution into 8/8/17 OR if volatility does explode higher, it would more closely resemble the period around mid-December 2015 thru Jan 20, 2016.