SPX Roadmap March 2017
Mis à jour
Looking good as long as current pullback stays shallow
Note
Both GDP and EPS should be accelerating into 2Q due to overlapping low comps from last year. This should underpin US marketsNote
It does appear something unfinished on downside. May happen this week, most likely in 2320s. OR this could just be A wave implying that after a lower high, another downtest comes into April, most likely 2300. In any way, sector rotations smooths the processNote
Min correction in 2320s reached overnight. Let's see what happens from hereNote
It will be good if it goes to 2290s by NFP Friday, APril 7, for marginal washout, but 2320 is the min and enough. IN any way as i said, weak momentum and grind. All the play is in sector rotationsNote
A very interesting structure short term is forming. Needs more validation but i will not be surprised by another EDNote
Big picture max overshoot to 2700 into 2018 after which SPX should revisit the BB No Taper level in high 1600sNote
Next 2 weeks we could have 2nd downtest toward 2295/2300 but not necessary.Note
Critical 2 week period coming as some indexes look like 2nd downtest coming which could force another sector rotation into late cyclicals, so subtle shifts underneathNote
And we enter April. Looking at the profile of Year 7 or post election year directionally, last opportunity to buy is in April traditionally. From April until deeper summer, market is quite strong. Couple this with both GDP and EPS ongoing acceleration min into summer, markets have lots of support.Note
Final inning in this correction, next week most likelyNote
So for so good. Either triangle or lower low at 2300 by early next week, and then final upleg to strategic targetNote
Ok, after French elections we are moving higher. It does appear this could form as quite a consolidation/complex 4 with range of 79/80 points. Add 79 points to 2401 on a breakout and it goes to 2480.. (strategic target of 2479 from LT model). Quite close if it happensNote
So far so good, the last up into summer should be very distributive and uneven in terms of breadthNote
SPX topped out for the time being at 2491, and the conditions for the upleg in this potential 5-D pattern have been fulfilled. This implies in this ED P5 version that the next move down will be actually large > 10% to 2175/2155 area, so essentially noone expects that (vs smaller Wave 4 of P5 impulse). That essentially will be a crash. Wait and see which way it develops. As if a crash then this could be Wave 2 of ED which means timewise this bull market continues for much more time
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