2025 - 2026 Roadmap
2025:
- Cut Gov Spending
- (Lower GPD)
- Cut Gov Temp Workers
- (Lower Employment)
- Deport Service Workers
- (Increasing inflation)
- Tarif's
- (One time inflation event)
Cutting government spending should
cause a recession.
Note march 2025 : Drop and Bounce from seasonality.
2026:
- '2020 Fed Carry' removed
- Call of 5 yr 1.5% loans.
- Called loans result in equity sell off.
- Treasury funds gov with 30 year
- Incentive to lower rates first.
The government plans to switch from using 2-year bonds to 30-year bonds to fund itself by the end of 2025 or early 2026, under an agreement between the Treasury and the Fed. The downside? With 30-year bonds, they'll be stuck paying today's high 5% interest rate for three decades.
Lowering the rate first would be better and save money, which is possible if a recession happens before the switch.
To help, the Fed agreed to leave and make room in the 30-year bond market.
- Cut Gov Spending
- (Lower GPD)
- Cut Gov Temp Workers
- (Lower Employment)
- Deport Service Workers
- (Increasing inflation)
- Tarif's
- (One time inflation event)
Cutting government spending should
cause a recession.
Note march 2025 : Drop and Bounce from seasonality.
2026:
- '2020 Fed Carry' removed
- Call of 5 yr 1.5% loans.
- Called loans result in equity sell off.
- Treasury funds gov with 30 year
- Incentive to lower rates first.
The government plans to switch from using 2-year bonds to 30-year bonds to fund itself by the end of 2025 or early 2026, under an agreement between the Treasury and the Fed. The downside? With 30-year bonds, they'll be stuck paying today's high 5% interest rate for three decades.
Lowering the rate first would be better and save money, which is possible if a recession happens before the switch.
To help, the Fed agreed to leave and make room in the 30-year bond market.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.