The Second Crash Draws Near

27 août 2020

I think 2020 will be known as the year of the two market crashes. The first catalyst was the coronavirus pandemic, and now the coming U.S. Presidential election will be the second - but markets don't always need an obvious catalyst, they will find one.

RSI is at a YTD high and is at the highest reading since January 2018, when RSI reached 89.

I don't think RSI is going to quite get that high this time around, because price is at a key resistance level (the upper band at the top of my chart). This resistance level was reached shortly before the crash of 2020, the only time we have traded into this price ceiling since 2008. Maybe we break through this resistance a bit and overshoot, but I am not top-ticking here. I want to be comfortably in my position before the crash gathers steam.

Targeting a crash bottom in mid-October to early November.

You've been informed, just as I informed you in February.

23 oct. 2020

Note

So I was quasi-correct on this. We saw a decent correction after the top in September, but nothing like we saw in March. I was over-confident in my analysis.