Can You Trade The Cycle?

19 juin 2023

Hi folks,

We're going to talk about trade cycles today. I hope you love learning! The strongest power is knowledge! We'll be stronger together!

In economics, a trade cycle is a pattern of economic activity that repeats itself over time. It is often characterized by periods of expansion, followed by periods of contraction. The trade cycle can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in government policy, technological innovation, and consumer demand.

The trade cycle is also known as the business cycle or economic cycle. It is a recurring but not periodic fluctuation found in a nation's aggregate economic activity- a cycle that consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general contractions (recessions).

There are a number of different types of trade cycles, each with its own characteristics. Some of the most common types of trade cycles include:

Kitchin cycle: The Kitchin cycle is a 4- to 5-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Joseph Kitchin, an English economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kitchin cycle is typically characterized by a period of rising prices, followed by a period of falling prices, followed by a period of rising prices again.

Juglar cycle: The Juglar cycle is a 10- to 15-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Clement Juglar, a French economist who first described it in the 19th century. The Juglar cycle is typically characterized by a period of expansion, a period of contraction, a period of recovery, and another period of expansion.

Kondratiev cycle: The Kondratieff cycle is a 50- to 60-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Nikolai Kondratieff, a Russian economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kondratieff cycle is typically characterized by four phases: prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery.

Now, we know what cycles are in the shape of context. There is a million dollars question.

Can we trade the cycles?

As a trader or an investor, we definitely can trade the cycles. However, we need to learn what the cycle is, and how can it start or end.

There are a number of ways that a trader can trade the cycle. Some popular methods include:

1- Using fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis can be used to assess the underlying value of a security. This information can be used to identify potential undervalued or overvalued securities.

2- Using cycle analysis. Cycle analysis is a more specialized form of technical analysis that focuses on identifying cycles in market prices. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades, as well as to forecast future price movements.

3- Using technical analysis. Technical analysis can be used to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as trendlines and patterns. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades.


It is important to note that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to trading the cycle. The best approach will vary depending on the individual trader's risk tolerance, trading style, and investment goals.

Final Tips:

📍Use a stop-loss order. A stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically closes a trade if the price of a security reaches a certain level. This can help to protect your profits and limit your losses.

📍Use a trailing stop-loss order. A trailing stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically moves with the price of a security. This can help to lock in profits and protect your gains.

📍Be patient. Trading the cycle can be a patient game. It is important to be patient and wait for the right opportunities to trade.

📍Don't overtrade. It is important to avoid overtrading. Overtrading can lead to losses and can also increase your risk.

Bonus Chart: US10Y



A task for you! Look at the bonus chart and leave your thoughts considering the correlation between US10Y and SP500 or ONS.