S&P 500 Next Week Expected Move ($64)

17 août 2020

SPX Next week expected move = $64.

A very strange week last week. Nasdaq mega-caps rotated into Small-cap value.
This is due to a short squeeze in the Most-shorted index, not a cyclical rebound.

Seeing VVVIX upward movement this week alongside the SPY. This is a huge Divergence.
I said keep a lookout for divergences. This week was full of 'em.

30-year Bonds got demolished. Higher yields + Steeper yield curves helped out the banks.
The IWM is full of banks. GLD was overextended and a pullback was expected.
UUP The Dollar appears to be forming an inverse H&S.

Lots of money moving around under the surface.
TIPS LTPC Inflation Expectations are moving up I believe, which will be a problem
for these more richly valued stocks that've been justified by really low rates.

Market Breadth is deteriorating as can be seen from the:
- RSP Equal Weight Index
- MMTW % of stocks above 50-day ma

Small caps are the only major index that's been in a primary downtrend since 2018 high.
Warren Buffett last week sold all of his exposure to Goldman Sachs GS and purchased Barrick Gold GOLD.

Best of luck next week,
- RH

17 août 2020

Note

HYG High Yield a huge red flag Divergence
PC Put/Call ratio is lowest it's been in 20 years for those contrarians out there.