Logical short on SPY back to 454

1. The idea here is that major levels dont reach the next level until we close a bullish candle above major resistance (white hrzntl line)
2. Chances of us retracing to 454 is significantly high considering we dont break Fridays highs
3. We have also started a new month and generally, the first two weeks of a new month are bearish
4. Any daily bullish candle closing over that resistance basically guarantees us the next level which is 463 which i think is likely ONLY if we close a bullish daily candle over that resistance