Relentless pressure in US Equities !!

2 oct. 2019

Here we are tracking the highs in SPX for Q4...with Fed doing the heavy lifting once more and keeping the US on life support with another cut and QE 'lite' .. the moves in this Quarter will likely be supported at 2750.

Equities are facing increasing headwinds from valuations. The strength of domestic demand in US has kept Equities held up for longer than expected but yesterday’s consumer confidence implies that the supply side weakness we have been tracking here is finally starting to spillover into the demand side.

This will be where strength gets converted into weakness, the point seems to be arriving. As long as the Vix remains above 15 we have cemented the highs and are now building scaffolding around the trend change:

Best of luck all those managing macro portfolios as we enter the final Q for the cycle. A significant change looks on the horizon for 2020, losing the steel support at 2750 will unlock 2315 very quickly next year.