S&P knocking at the resistance for Jackson Hole

21 août 2019

Here we go for Fed minutes today…markets are expecting a muted event today with all focus on Powell at Jackson Hole. Fed’s Daly (see attached) wrote that she still see’s recession risks as low and in a measured approach challenges Powell to not bend the knee. Markets are heading for a disappointment this weekend, expectations are hoping for a very dovish Powell and instead the focus will be on talks around trade and fiscal stimulus. Any hints of the fiscal taps being turned will push yields higher, money markets will be kept tight and the USD will be remain bid.

Equities are looking very soft and sending alarm messages this morning, risk off flows are about to trigger. No surprises more US warmongering in the Gulf hitting the wires as a reminder of the geo-political risks. With risk aversions play the FX board accordingly long JPY, CHF and EUR to a lesser extent with Italian politics cleared till later in the year.

All eyes on the resistance here, bulls need to get back above to do any damage to the current downtrend.

Best of luck all those trading minutes, Jackson and Fed.