S&P 500 Top
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
I am calling a top in the S&P 500 and the charts pretty much speak for themselves. What is most important to me is the death cross with the 50 & 200 day MA’s along with the 200 flattening out after a multi year trend.
I am also viewing the current range as a Wyckoff Distribution pattern. From here I would expect a breakdown of the ice line or one last dead cat bounce to retest the middle of the trading range at $2,700 - $2,725. The 50 day MA also happens to be waiting in that area and if that does get retested then it would provide a high probability short sale entry. Same goes if we get a daily close below the ice line.
When we zoom out to the weekly the picture does not get any prettier, in fact it provides very important confirmation.
We broke down the 3 year bull trend line and promptly turned it into resistance. The 22 week MA has rolled down, with the price below it, for the first time since the last presidential election. This week also just closed a bearish engulfing candle.
According to Thomas Bulkowski:
“the bearish engulfing candlestick serves as a bearish reversal in 79% of the 20,000 examples that I studied.”(1)
I have been fully out of my S&P longs for over a month and now I’m fully entered into shorts. That is due to the price closeing below the 4, 9, 50 & 200 MA’s on the daily combined with a death cross with the 50 & 200 along with a bearish crossover with the 3 & 9 MA’s. This is confirmed with the weekly closing below the 4, 8 & 22 MA’s with bearish crossovers across the board.
If you would like to learn how to use moving averages more effectively then I would strongly recommend subscribing to Tyler Jenks Hyperwave youtube channel and starting with the following video.
youtube.com/watch?v=xwW8h0lrQ-I&t=8s
(1) thepatternsite.com/BearEngulfing.html
I am calling a top in the S&P 500 and the charts pretty much speak for themselves. What is most important to me is the death cross with the 50 & 200 day MA’s along with the 200 flattening out after a multi year trend.
I am also viewing the current range as a Wyckoff Distribution pattern. From here I would expect a breakdown of the ice line or one last dead cat bounce to retest the middle of the trading range at $2,700 - $2,725. The 50 day MA also happens to be waiting in that area and if that does get retested then it would provide a high probability short sale entry. Same goes if we get a daily close below the ice line.
When we zoom out to the weekly the picture does not get any prettier, in fact it provides very important confirmation.
We broke down the 3 year bull trend line and promptly turned it into resistance. The 22 week MA has rolled down, with the price below it, for the first time since the last presidential election. This week also just closed a bearish engulfing candle.
According to Thomas Bulkowski:
“the bearish engulfing candlestick serves as a bearish reversal in 79% of the 20,000 examples that I studied.”(1)
I have been fully out of my S&P longs for over a month and now I’m fully entered into shorts. That is due to the price closeing below the 4, 9, 50 & 200 MA’s on the daily combined with a death cross with the 50 & 200 along with a bearish crossover with the 3 & 9 MA’s. This is confirmed with the weekly closing below the 4, 8 & 22 MA’s with bearish crossovers across the board.
If you would like to learn how to use moving averages more effectively then I would strongly recommend subscribing to Tyler Jenks Hyperwave youtube channel and starting with the following video.
youtube.com/watch?v=xwW8h0lrQ-I&t=8s
(1) thepatternsite.com/BearEngulfing.html
Note
Weekly H&S with an abbreviated right shoulder."H&S top patterns with abbreviated right shoulders can be more powerful than a balanced shoulder structure."
"I love abbreviated right shoulder trades." -Peter Brandt
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.