SPY: Reversal or Continuation? Nov. 18, 2024

il y a 3 jours

SPY) is rebounding after a sharp sell-off, with price approaching critical resistance levels. With strong volume near recent lows, it’s a crucial moment for traders to watch for breakout or rejection opportunities. Here’s a detailed trading plan for scalping and swing setups.

Technical Overview:
Market Structure:

Trend: SPY remains in a short-term downtrend, but the current bounce from the lows indicates potential bullish momentum.
EMA Levels: The 9 EMA (purple) and 21 EMA (blue) are converging, creating a dynamic resistance zone near $590.

Key Levels:

Resistance Zones:
$594.50 – Immediate resistance aligned with EMA confluence.
$601.00 – Psychological resistance and key supply zone.
Support Zones:
$583.00 – Current support zone where buyers stepped in.
$580.00 – Critical demand zone and psychological support.

Supply and Demand Zones:

Demand Zone: $580.00–$583.00, where buyers have shown strong interest.
Supply Zone: $594.50–$601.00, where sellers have consistently stepped in.
Indicators:

MACD: Shows bullish divergence, with momentum building on the histogram.
Volume: Increased green volume bars indicate growing buyer interest near $583.00.

Pattern:

Potential inverted head and shoulders forming, signaling a possible reversal if $594.50 breaks.

Game Plan:
Scalping Plan (1-Min and 5-Min Timeframe):
Entry for Long:

Buy if price breaks above $594.50 with strong volume.
Target 1: $598.00 (scalp to mid-resistance).
Target 2: $601.00 (supply zone).

Entry for Short:

Sell if price rejects $594.50 or breaks below $583.00.
Target 1: $580.50 (psychological support).
Target 2: $580.00 (demand zone test).
Stop Loss:

Long: Below $593.00.
Short: Above $595.50.

Swing Trade Plan:
Bullish Scenario:

Buy if price holds above $583.00 and breaks $594.50.
Target 1: $601.00 (supply zone).
Extended Target: $610.00 (potential breakout level).
Stop Loss: Below $580.00.

Bearish Scenario:

Sell if price fails to hold $583.00 and breaks below $580.00.
Target 1: $570.00 (next demand zone).
Extended Target: $560.00 (potential lower low).
Stop Loss: Above $584.50.

My Thoughts:
For Scalping: Watch for a breakout or rejection at $594.50 for momentum trades. The volume profile near $583.00 suggests strong buyer interest, so tight risk management is key for shorts.

For Swing Trades: Price above $594.50 could signal a bullish reversal, while failure to hold $583.00 opens the door for further downside.

Directional Bias:
Short-term: Neutral-to-bullish if $594.50 breaks with strong momentum.
Mid-term: Slightly bearish unless SPY reclaims $601.00.

Actionable Suggestions:
Use the $594.50 resistance and $583.00 support as key levels for entries.
Focus on volume and price action at these levels for scalping and swing setups.
Avoid trading within the $583.00–$594.50 range to reduce noise and increase risk/reward.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management when trading.