The Evolution of Bull/Bear Market Cycles
For the better part of the last 3 months I have been observing Bears and Bulls jostle back and forth in a tug of war.
It began with an indicator of Bear/Bull market I could use and created a chart based on the 21 week EMA.
Then I listened to the Volatility Legend, Cem Karsan
Cem brings up a few points that not a lot of people talk about:
Then covid comes along and changed the game even faster.
Markets are increasingly become a larger and more important portion of the GDP.
There are increasingly more ways for investors to get involved with their money like no other point in history.
Collectives of Retail investors are forming more competition to Institutional Investors.
Money continues to become cheaper.
It seems to me, a market outsider, that a correction is not over the horizon but rather it will continue to evolve to the point where Bull/Bear markets are more cyclical in nature.
We'll see. My first year in the stock markets has not been dull.
My second year, looks to be full of surprises.
It began with an indicator of Bear/Bull market I could use and created a chart based on the 21 week EMA.
Then I listened to the Volatility Legend, Cem Karsan
Cem brings up a few points that not a lot of people talk about:
- Options are the Market
- The Market has been evolving at a continually faster pace over the past 20 years.
- 500 Trillion in Long Assets worldwide, an increase of 6.25% this year alone.
- Volatility Flows have become supportive against decline in a type of feedback loop (Reflexivity)
- Market Breadth has been Bearish for months (about the time a bear market traditional run)
Then covid comes along and changed the game even faster.
- Fastest growth in tech/speculation stocks
- Meme stocks and short squeeze shenanigans all summer.
- Bond markets being brought to its knees.
- When rates do increase the markets may have evolved so that "Crashes" wouldn't occur like the past.
Markets are increasingly become a larger and more important portion of the GDP.
There are increasingly more ways for investors to get involved with their money like no other point in history.
Collectives of Retail investors are forming more competition to Institutional Investors.
Money continues to become cheaper.
It seems to me, a market outsider, that a correction is not over the horizon but rather it will continue to evolve to the point where Bull/Bear markets are more cyclical in nature.
We'll see. My first year in the stock markets has not been dull.
My second year, looks to be full of surprises.
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