SPY - 2 Hour / Buyers & Sellers prefer Higher

24 août 2022

How often does the Market reward both when they are aligned?

Not often.

Rare to see both seeking Prices to move higher, and potentially
why Wall Street will shake things up with a few surprises.

Volumes declined significantly yesterday.

NVDA reports today.

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In all probability, they will attempt to entice both Lower and
create a chase into new Lows.

GDP Revisions may have the desired impact on Thursday.

Friday will be the Maximum Mix day with intense volatility.

It's what I would do, were it my job to frustrate as many market
participants as possible.

Areas of interest below for the SPY - 407.35 / 408.11 / 409.88
with the Pivot at 410.2.

For Friday's Expiry, the Range is 410 to 416 for Retail, the SPX will
lead once again, the possibility of a large but unapparent disconnect
is why we see Max Pain fail time and again.

Large Traders have been ranging the SPX with a larger sell-side
favor intraday as well as into September, on balance they are
quite heavily positioned for further downside.

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What stood from yesterday:

The VIX Barely budged, the DX pulled back .88% at one point, while
2YY and TNX stayed within range.

News out of the Eurozone was negative in the extreme, with Natgas
correlated to Crude indicating - $410 to 5500/BBL was fair value.

A trap or set expectations, longer term we are very bullish crude,
but are positioned for fills between 62 & 77.

OIL is showing continued strength as it approaches 95 this morning.
I exited my longs this morning.

GOLD, not so much - 1687 remains open.

Noise, for now, but as long as Crude is moving higher on OPEC's
production cuts impending, the SPY SPX ES NQ YM RTY will struggle.

Energy is having a marked impact on Price since the 200 EMA touch.

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Apple appears to be looking at the 164 fill, with the Markets coiling up
the break in either direction will be quick and dirty.

Crypto looks quite weak, BTC may revisit the 19K level shortly.

With the expectations of Markets ranging into Jackson Hole and Powell's
10 AM EST Speech on Friday - Friday is a simply massive Macro Data Day.

8:30 am PCE price index monthly
8:30 am Core PCE price index monthly
8:30 am PCE price index year-over-year
8:30 am Core PCE price index year-over-year
8:30 am Real disposable incomes
8:30 am Real consumer spending
8:30 am Nominal personal incomes
8:30 am Nominal consumer spending
8:30 am Trade in goods, advance
10 am Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole retreat
10 am UMich consumer sentiment index (final)
10 am UMich 5-year inflation expectations (final)

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Financial Media flipped to Seasonal Volatility and a return to questioning
the longevity and validity of the move off June's lows - too fast, too much.

Fear / Greed Index remains relatively Neutral - tinyurl.com/mrnaydnu

The Federal Reserve has reduced The Balance Sheet by $115.755 Billion.

Inflation will remain high for 1 to 2 years according to Goldman Sachs.

Trade Safe, patience wins this week as Friday's OPEX will be a criminal affair.