Possible/likely wave structure for SP500
After breaking down through a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts, it is almost certain that the S&P 500 is heading down hard. Therefore, I have created a possible wave structure based on the most important data in the last 14 months, including Powell's testimony and speech, CPI data, and FOMC meeting/rate decision time. Inflation is still topic number 1 on all social networks and is likely will stay for some more time or till FED pivots after which corporate earnings will be number one and we will all forget inflation data.
In this analysis, I mark with:
- A blue vertical line on March 7th when Powell has testimony at 10 AM,
- A green vertical line on the CPI report at 08,30 AM,
- A red vertical line on the FOMC decision time at 2 PM (25 or 50 basis points, the question of life or death :)).
I mark this whole structure as a double zigzag, where the first component is finished, and now we are in the second zigzag. We finished wave A at October 2022 low, then had ABC up where we likely finished the B wave at February 2023 high, and now we are in the down C towards the 2800-3200 area, depending on many factors where it will bottom.
In that C wave down, at the start of this week, we could finish wave 1 of C and we could see a rise into wave 2 of C towards Powell's testimony. As where he will be asked very unpleasant questions, as we all know he made a mistake at the last FOMC meeting when he mentioned the word "deflation" 11 fu..... times, yet the report shows inflation is rising, not falling. With his testimony, wave 2 of C could finish, and we could start with a massive wave 3 of C.
This 3 of C should be the most destructure wave which will be helped with the CPI report on 14 March and that 3 of C wave could last till the FOMC meeting on 22 March or FOMC meeting.
On March 22nd, it could be easy "to buy on the rumor and sell on the news event" where we could have the end of wave 3 of C and rise up in wave 4 of C.
But as we have had several times of late reactions to the FOMC decision, it could easily be the same story, and therefore we could end with our wave 5 of C and a correction for 2023.
The time of structure and structure itself is very similar in size and last like those in 2022.
After that double zig-zag, we could have several months of peace and a green market.
In this analysis, I mark with:
- A blue vertical line on March 7th when Powell has testimony at 10 AM,
- A green vertical line on the CPI report at 08,30 AM,
- A red vertical line on the FOMC decision time at 2 PM (25 or 50 basis points, the question of life or death :)).
I mark this whole structure as a double zigzag, where the first component is finished, and now we are in the second zigzag. We finished wave A at October 2022 low, then had ABC up where we likely finished the B wave at February 2023 high, and now we are in the down C towards the 2800-3200 area, depending on many factors where it will bottom.
In that C wave down, at the start of this week, we could finish wave 1 of C and we could see a rise into wave 2 of C towards Powell's testimony. As where he will be asked very unpleasant questions, as we all know he made a mistake at the last FOMC meeting when he mentioned the word "deflation" 11 fu..... times, yet the report shows inflation is rising, not falling. With his testimony, wave 2 of C could finish, and we could start with a massive wave 3 of C.
This 3 of C should be the most destructure wave which will be helped with the CPI report on 14 March and that 3 of C wave could last till the FOMC meeting on 22 March or FOMC meeting.
On March 22nd, it could be easy "to buy on the rumor and sell on the news event" where we could have the end of wave 3 of C and rise up in wave 4 of C.
But as we have had several times of late reactions to the FOMC decision, it could easily be the same story, and therefore we could end with our wave 5 of C and a correction for 2023.
The time of structure and structure itself is very similar in size and last like those in 2022.
After that double zig-zag, we could have several months of peace and a green market.
Note
Damn this was the perfect analyze till now! Will we celebrate or something will change in meantimeNote
Note
I assess everything is in order, the only problem is it is going slower than I was thinking.
We are somewhere in a third crash wave, the most destructive and most powerful wave in Elliot. Could be that we are in 2 of 3 waves. After 2 is done we are going for 3 of 3 of C which MUST be a huge drop with huge volume with huge pain, otherwise, something is different.
For me, invalidation of this structure is IF SPY go above 410 which is not likely for now
Consistency is the key of success....
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Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Consistency is the key of success....
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.