SPY 420 after 420?

SPY had a balanced week, closing down -0.06% at 412.20 after a hot start making highs on Tuesday. Since SPY essentially didn’t move this week, most of our price targets are going to be the same as last week in anticipation of a huge earnings and data week.

Technical Analysis: SPY saw price finally break above the larger triangle (pink line), only to reject the top of an uptrend. SPY is now consolidating in a rising wedge since March. We need to see it stay above last week’s close and break above the rising wedge to make new highs. If SPY cannot break above, the rising wedge can play out sending SPY down to Andrew’s target of 408.05 in the coming weeks.

If SPY can continue to hold above the 413.03 daily level and close a full daily candle above the red trendline, we target the monthly level at 417.30, and target the daily gap fill above from 419.96 to 421.22.

Bear case if we can break below last week’s lows of 410.17. If SPY breaks down through the rising wedge and back into the triangle, we can target the 409.15 monthly level, and Andrew’s target of 408.05. Under that we have a more supports around 406, 404, and 402. If we break down further, we can target the daily gap fill below at 398.68 to 396.49.

Upside Targets: 413.03 → 414.94 → 416.25 → 417.30 → 420.72 Extended: 425.14 → 428.78

Downside Targets: 410.64 → 409.15 → 407.51 → 405.33 → 404.45 Extended: 402.20 → 398.68