SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTMis à jour SPY - Minsky Moment coming?
I AM NOT ENTERED IN THIS BEARISH POSITION...YET.
I will update with possible entries this morning after reviewing chart ideas.
Entry updates will be made at once on all charts when applicable.
"A Minsky Moment is a sudden collapse of asset prices after a long period of growth, sparked by debt or currency pressures." Named after economist Hyman Minsky.
This theory was co-written with a Nobel Prize winning economist. So basically 2 college professors - 1 of which is Nobel quality.
google.com/search?q=minsky+moment&client=firefox-b-1-d&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi1sLqf69XmAhUQXc0KHdXACYAQ_AUIDCgA&biw=1920&bih=944&dpr=1
The current market conditions represent a Minsky Moment by definition.
Current Fed Repo's still continuing to 1/14/2020 - newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details
Chart Details
Reversion to the mean 10WeekMA - SPY would be $310 or below.
Lots of gaps to fill down to $295. Very good profit potential for options entry.
Price has potential to correct down to blue line - long term support.
Watching RSI trend breakdown as one key indicator for entry.\
Bearish EMA cross below $320 Daily candle close should get us over the hump - going down. Will update later to confirm.
Entry Options
We have large liquidity and high downside risk.
Since things are uncertain, I see two options.
1 - No risk. No reward. Wait until Jan 1 to see if things go down, or continue up.
2 - Enter small size call credit spread for bearish SPY or anything else bearish like AAPL possibly by next Tuesday. Market is closed on Wed. 1/1/2020. By 1/2 either we get right/lucky or get screwed out of max 200ish. I will need to find exact specifics of entry after reviewing charts.
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
I am transitioning to my new website moneypatterns.com and will be updating my username here. Same guy - new name. :)
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC.
I will update with possible entries this morning after reviewing chart ideas.
Entry updates will be made at once on all charts when applicable.
"A Minsky Moment is a sudden collapse of asset prices after a long period of growth, sparked by debt or currency pressures." Named after economist Hyman Minsky.
This theory was co-written with a Nobel Prize winning economist. So basically 2 college professors - 1 of which is Nobel quality.
google.com/search?q=minsky+moment&client=firefox-b-1-d&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi1sLqf69XmAhUQXc0KHdXACYAQ_AUIDCgA&biw=1920&bih=944&dpr=1
The current market conditions represent a Minsky Moment by definition.
Current Fed Repo's still continuing to 1/14/2020 - newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details
Chart Details
Reversion to the mean 10WeekMA - SPY would be $310 or below.
Lots of gaps to fill down to $295. Very good profit potential for options entry.
Price has potential to correct down to blue line - long term support.
Watching RSI trend breakdown as one key indicator for entry.\
Bearish EMA cross below $320 Daily candle close should get us over the hump - going down. Will update later to confirm.
Entry Options
We have large liquidity and high downside risk.
Since things are uncertain, I see two options.
1 - No risk. No reward. Wait until Jan 1 to see if things go down, or continue up.
2 - Enter small size call credit spread for bearish SPY or anything else bearish like AAPL possibly by next Tuesday. Market is closed on Wed. 1/1/2020. By 1/2 either we get right/lucky or get screwed out of max 200ish. I will need to find exact specifics of entry after reviewing charts.
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
I am transitioning to my new website moneypatterns.com and will be updating my username here. Same guy - new name. :)
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC.
Note
Possible Options Entry:Enter next Monday/Tuesday
Jan 17 expiry. Call Credit Spread. 321/324. $196 Credit. $103.68 max loss.
This entry implies that if SPY is below $324 and $321 by 1/17/2020, max credit $196 is kept.
Only thing - this entry each leg odds are 36% and 50%. LOW.
May change next week or this is just riskier trade.
Note - the 321/324 spread has greater payout than 321/326 ($5 spread).
97,000 open options contracts for the 321/324. Someone knows something.
Let me know if anyone has questions.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.