Obligations du Trésor Américain 20+ ISHARES ETF

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TLT Roadmap Dec 2023

Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024

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Good start

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Early stage

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More pulling back ahead

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Should start turning up

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Very good price action following the expected path

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I made a mistake with the instrument here, instead of TLT should have used IEF as 10 yr yields will fall faster than 30 yr yields

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It is highly likely that this upswing starting Oct 2023 extends into Oct 2025. Obviously no straight line but some correction starting Aug into Oct 2024

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Entertaining to say the least

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Market participants are fully imposing the Trump trade across asset markets. This most likely will form a triangle (currently D wave forming to the downside) before new highs in yields/lows in bonds

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Bonds setting initial low on that decline likely this week

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JP was a bit hesitant yesterday which is incrementally hawkish (as was Logan). I was very confident that this will happen once DJT wins. More cuts will further destabilize yields

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Probably quick rally this week

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Market was already sniffing the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Sec as an outspoken deficit hawk

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Should be heading higher into summer June/July. Bessent has massive debt to rollover

Neon

Publications connexes

10 Yr Yield Roadmap Oct 2023

par Neon

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