MARKETS week ahead: June 10 – 17
Last week in the news
Macro fundamentals were the ones that significantly moved markets during the previous week. The US jobs data were the ones that strongly pushed market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates during the course of this year. The US Dollar gained during the week, while the price of gold sharply dropped to the level of $2.293. US Treasuries also reacted on jobs data, pushing the yield toward 4.43% for one more time. The only market that was relatively calm was the crypto market, where BTC was trying for one more time to clearly break the 70K, but for one more time the attempt was without success.
The major news during the previous week is that the ECB started pivoting. In their regular meeting, held during the previous week, the ECB members decided to cut interest rates by 25%. In her after the meeting comments, ECB President Lagarde noted that the inflation has decreased enough within the Euro Area, which supported ECB`s decision. She also noted that the ECB members are “not committing to any particular rate path” suggesting that it is not clear whether there will be more rate cuts in the coming months. It should be noted that the inflation in May reached 2.6%, which is a bit higher from the ECB target of 2%. On the other hand, the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead. It is currently expected that the Fed will not make any changes to its current interest rates. However, as per current market expectations, there is a 68% chance that the Fed will make its first pivoting move in September this year. At the same time, the latest posted jobs figures show mixed results. On one hand, the US unemployment rate reached 4.0% in May, a bit higher from previous 3.9%, while the non-farm payrolls figure increased by 272K in May, significantly surpassing market estimate of 185K.
The price of gold significantly dropped on Friday, on the news that the Bank of China halted its further purchases of gold to its reserves in May, after 18 months of consecutive purchases. The data showed that the PBoC was holding 72.8 million ounces of gold in May, which was the same as in April. The value of China's gold reserves amounts to $170.96 billion. Analysts involved in the matter are commenting that the PBoC is not nearing the actual halt of gold purchases. They are noting that currently elevated prices of gold are not attractive for PBoC purchases, but they will hold until the price of gold consolidates in the near future period.
News are reporting that the largest Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the Norges Bank Investment management (NBIM) will vote against ratification of the $56 billion pay package for Tesla`s CEO Elon Musk. The fund is noting that that the amount is too high and that it is unfair for the shareholders. The fund holds 0.98% stake in Tesla, worth around $7.7 billion.
Crypto market cap
The US macro data were in the spotlight of investors sentiment during the previous week, where the crypto market was left a bit aside. The markets full focus is now on the forthcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, June 12th, when investors will be provided with a Fed's latest overview of the macro developments, and potentially information on their future course of action. Of course, the markets are most interested when the Fed will start pivoting. Until the first pivot occurs, the market nervousness around FOMC meetings will remain high. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 1% on a weekly basis, where BTC was driving the market to the upside. At the same time, daily trading volumes were significantly decreased, moving around 85B on a daily basis, which is a significant drop from the week before, when the market was trading around 113B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 843B, which represents a 51% surge from the beginning of this year.
Despite the weekly increase in total market capitalization, still, the crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. There were almost the equal number of coins which ended the week in green and those with a weekly result in red. Regardless of a higher weekly volatility, BTC gained around 2.7% on a weekly level, increasing its capitalization by 36B. Ether ended the week in red, losing around 2.7% w/w or 12B. Solana also lost 2.5B in the market cap, decreasing it by 3.2%. Among higher losing coins were DASH with a drop in value of 12.6%, EOS lost 11.1%, Zcash dropped by 12%, while OMG Network lost 35.7% on a weekly basis. Among coins which gained during the week were Monero, with an increase in value of 13.6%, Binance Coin was among significant gainers with an increase of the market cap by 12B or 14.1%. Filecoin should also be mentioned, as it increased its market cap by 7%.
Increased developments with coins in circulation continues. Filecoin added 0.5% more coins to the market during the previous week. Solana increased its coins in circulation by 0.2%, same as Stellar. Tether`s market cap and circulating coins surged by 0.3% on a weekly basis.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market was generally following developments on the spot market, however, it should be noted that the general interest for the crypto futures decreased during the previous week, which coincided with significantly decreased daily trading volumes on the crypto spot market.
BTC both short and long term futures were traded around 2% higher from the week before for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at level of $73.750, while those maturing a year later ended the week at the level of $77.025. ETH short term futures were traded around 2.8% lower from the week before, while those with longer maturities were traded relatively flat compared to the week before.
Macro fundamentals were the ones that significantly moved markets during the previous week. The US jobs data were the ones that strongly pushed market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates during the course of this year. The US Dollar gained during the week, while the price of gold sharply dropped to the level of $2.293. US Treasuries also reacted on jobs data, pushing the yield toward 4.43% for one more time. The only market that was relatively calm was the crypto market, where BTC was trying for one more time to clearly break the 70K, but for one more time the attempt was without success.
The major news during the previous week is that the ECB started pivoting. In their regular meeting, held during the previous week, the ECB members decided to cut interest rates by 25%. In her after the meeting comments, ECB President Lagarde noted that the inflation has decreased enough within the Euro Area, which supported ECB`s decision. She also noted that the ECB members are “not committing to any particular rate path” suggesting that it is not clear whether there will be more rate cuts in the coming months. It should be noted that the inflation in May reached 2.6%, which is a bit higher from the ECB target of 2%. On the other hand, the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead. It is currently expected that the Fed will not make any changes to its current interest rates. However, as per current market expectations, there is a 68% chance that the Fed will make its first pivoting move in September this year. At the same time, the latest posted jobs figures show mixed results. On one hand, the US unemployment rate reached 4.0% in May, a bit higher from previous 3.9%, while the non-farm payrolls figure increased by 272K in May, significantly surpassing market estimate of 185K.
The price of gold significantly dropped on Friday, on the news that the Bank of China halted its further purchases of gold to its reserves in May, after 18 months of consecutive purchases. The data showed that the PBoC was holding 72.8 million ounces of gold in May, which was the same as in April. The value of China's gold reserves amounts to $170.96 billion. Analysts involved in the matter are commenting that the PBoC is not nearing the actual halt of gold purchases. They are noting that currently elevated prices of gold are not attractive for PBoC purchases, but they will hold until the price of gold consolidates in the near future period.
News are reporting that the largest Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the Norges Bank Investment management (NBIM) will vote against ratification of the $56 billion pay package for Tesla`s CEO Elon Musk. The fund is noting that that the amount is too high and that it is unfair for the shareholders. The fund holds 0.98% stake in Tesla, worth around $7.7 billion.
Crypto market cap
The US macro data were in the spotlight of investors sentiment during the previous week, where the crypto market was left a bit aside. The markets full focus is now on the forthcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, June 12th, when investors will be provided with a Fed's latest overview of the macro developments, and potentially information on their future course of action. Of course, the markets are most interested when the Fed will start pivoting. Until the first pivot occurs, the market nervousness around FOMC meetings will remain high. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 1% on a weekly basis, where BTC was driving the market to the upside. At the same time, daily trading volumes were significantly decreased, moving around 85B on a daily basis, which is a significant drop from the week before, when the market was trading around 113B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 843B, which represents a 51% surge from the beginning of this year.
Despite the weekly increase in total market capitalization, still, the crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. There were almost the equal number of coins which ended the week in green and those with a weekly result in red. Regardless of a higher weekly volatility, BTC gained around 2.7% on a weekly level, increasing its capitalization by 36B. Ether ended the week in red, losing around 2.7% w/w or 12B. Solana also lost 2.5B in the market cap, decreasing it by 3.2%. Among higher losing coins were DASH with a drop in value of 12.6%, EOS lost 11.1%, Zcash dropped by 12%, while OMG Network lost 35.7% on a weekly basis. Among coins which gained during the week were Monero, with an increase in value of 13.6%, Binance Coin was among significant gainers with an increase of the market cap by 12B or 14.1%. Filecoin should also be mentioned, as it increased its market cap by 7%.
Increased developments with coins in circulation continues. Filecoin added 0.5% more coins to the market during the previous week. Solana increased its coins in circulation by 0.2%, same as Stellar. Tether`s market cap and circulating coins surged by 0.3% on a weekly basis.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market was generally following developments on the spot market, however, it should be noted that the general interest for the crypto futures decreased during the previous week, which coincided with significantly decreased daily trading volumes on the crypto spot market.
BTC both short and long term futures were traded around 2% higher from the week before for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at level of $73.750, while those maturing a year later ended the week at the level of $77.025. ETH short term futures were traded around 2.8% lower from the week before, while those with longer maturities were traded relatively flat compared to the week before.
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